What do we expect to happen?<\/b>
\nThe Long Run<\/b><\/p>\n
We expect sea level rise will total about 270 feet over the next several millennia. In 1998, the State of New Jersey published Sea Level Rise in New Jersey<\/a> with a depiction of the Statue of Liberty with 270 feet in sea level rise.<\/p>\n In the last melting of the glacial maximum, the first 500 years saw a “pulse” of high rate sea level rise of about 500 years duration resulting in about a 66 foot rise in sea levels<\/a>.<\/p>\n A high rate of sea-level rise starting at \u223c14.5 ka BP of \u223c500 y duration. The onset occurs at the start of the B\u00f8lling\u2212Aller\u00f8d warm period. Its duration could be <500 y because of uncertainties in chronology, and the globally averaged rise in sea level of \u223c20 m occurs at a rate of \u223c40 mm\u22c5y\u22121 or greater. This pulse, MWP-1A<\/b>, has been identified separately in the records of Barbados, Sunda , and Tahiti. Spatial variation in its amplitude can be expected because of the planet\u2019s elastic and gravitational response to rapid unloading of ice in either or both of the two hemispheres with, based on the ice\u2212earth models used here, model-predicted values ranging from \u223c14 m for Barbados to \u223c20 m for Tahiti. This compares with observational values of \u223c15\u201320 m for Barbados and 12\u201322 m for Tahiti. Observational uncertainties remain large, including differences in the timing of this event as recorded at the different localities, and it is not possible from this evidence to ascertain the relative importance of the contribution of the two hemispheres to MWP-1A.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n We expect to see a similar pattern in the long run.<\/p>\n Our estimate of 270 feet is based on “the safe” elevation to live… high-tide, waves, storm surge, grade of shoreline, etc. would make me want my living space to be at least 270 feet above pre-industrial sea levels. Of\u00a0course, I don’t expect that to happen for millennia… but, I do hope government planners do plan for it now. If you look at Florida as an example, parts of the coastline have seen sea levels rise over 14-20 feet in the last decade… although it was only for hours, you wouldn’t want to live there during those hours. Not to mention, the frequency of these extreme weather events will rise exponentially. (Thus, our recommendation to evacuate Florida now i.e. Managed Retreat.) The billions of dollars spent to rebuild after Ida will all be for naught. Allowing building there will needlessly endanger property and lives. Parts of the world have already seen storm surges of 40 feet. I expect most North American coastlines will see sea levels rise, if only temporarily, by 20-40 feet this century. As far as long run sea level rise, much will depend on location, gravity, isostatic adjustment, and thermal expansion. If the ocean temperatures get warm enough (thermal expansion), parts of the world may see sea levels rise to 270 feet for long periods of times. Other parts of the world, like Greenland, may actually see sea levels decline. In any event, the Earth crossed tipping points this decade which make extreme sea level rise inevitable and irreversible in our lifetimes. Planners should plan on it.<\/p>\n Sidd reiterated, “That 270 feet will take a long time. I would be more careful about the violent rain<\/b><\/a> than the ice melt.”<\/p>\n — from Sea Level Rise: Then and Now<\/a> \/ Mukherjee and Brouse (2023)<\/p>\n — The Song: Violent Rain<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n What Can I Do?<\/strong> LYRICS Better move over Getting crowded up here Late to discover But it’s coming clearer Reality sets in Watchin’ the future dim Past time to begin And try again And try, try, try Try again See sea keep rising Getting deep down there Shouldn’t be surprising Yet, caught unaware? Better move over Getting crowded up […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3,5,6,9,14,3878,3810],"tags":[3937,163,3939,528,3938],"class_list":["post-31846","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-4d-music","category-chaos-theory","category-chords","category-daniel","category-lyrics","category-rawhide","category-speciman","tag-check-your-temperature","tag-climate-change","tag-gobsmackingly-bananas","tag-midi","tag-rawhide-ous"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31846","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31846"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31846\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31851,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31846\/revisions\/31851"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31846"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31846"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31846"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"Long](\"http:\/\/membrane.com\/global_warming\/pictures\/New-Jersey-Statue-of-Liberty.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n
\nThere are plenty of things you can do to help save the planet. Stop using fossil fuels. Consume less. Love more.<\/strong> Here is a list of additional actions you can take.<\/a><\/p>\nA song about The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment<\/a><\/h2>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"