{"id":42879,"date":"2025-04-14T12:34:20","date_gmt":"2025-04-14T12:34:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/idea.membrane.com\/songwriter\/?p=42879"},"modified":"2025-04-14T12:34:20","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T12:34:20","slug":"deviation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/2025\/04\/14\/deviation\/","title":{"rendered":"Deviation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Deviation-0.mp3\">Deviation-0.mp3<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Deviation-0.mp4\">Deviation-0.mp4<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Deviation-I.mp3\">Deviation-I.mp3<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Deviation-I.mp4\">Deviation-I.mp4<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Deviation-intro.mp3\">Deviation-intro.mp3<\/a><\/p>\n<p>[Intro]<br \/>\nIs your (Deviation)<br \/>\nStandard<br \/>\n(Man slandered)<br \/>\nCivilization<\/p>\n<p>[Verse 1]<br \/>\nYou call this civilized<br \/>\nHopin&#8217; you&#8217;d realized<br \/>\nWe create deviate<br \/>\nIn all we relate<\/p>\n<p>[Bridge]<br \/>\nTime we pull through<br \/>\nWe (me and you)<\/p>\n<p>[Chorus]<br \/>\nIs our (Deviation)<br \/>\nStandard<br \/>\n(Man slandered)<br \/>\nCivilization<br \/>\n(Deviation)<\/p>\n<p>[Bridge]<br \/>\nDevolution<br \/>\nSour (solution)<\/p>\n<p>[Verse 2]<br \/>\nYou call this civilized<br \/>\nMore dazed than surprised<br \/>\nWe let our deviate<br \/>\nAt an exponential rate<\/p>\n<p>[Bridge]<br \/>\nTime we pull through<br \/>\nWe (me and you)<\/p>\n<p>[Chorus]<br \/>\nIs our (Deviation)<br \/>\nStandard<br \/>\n(Man slandered)<br \/>\nCivilization<br \/>\n(Deviation)<\/p>\n<p>[Outro]<br \/>\nDevolution<br \/>\nOur sour (solution)<br \/>\nOur are<\/p>\n<p>ABOUT THE SCIENCE<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"0\" data-end=\"140\">A <strong data-start=\"2\" data-end=\"24\">standard deviation<\/strong> is a statistical measure that quantifies the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values. In simple terms:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"142\" data-end=\"306\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"142\" data-end=\"222\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"144\" data-end=\"222\">A <strong data-start=\"146\" data-end=\"172\">low standard deviation<\/strong> means the values are close to the average (mean).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"223\" data-end=\"306\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"225\" data-end=\"306\">A <strong data-start=\"227\" data-end=\"254\">high standard deviation<\/strong> means the values are spread out over a wider range.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"308\" data-end=\"449\">It\u2019s often used in economics and finance to measure <strong data-start=\"360\" data-end=\"396\">risk, volatility, or abnormality<\/strong> in data like stock prices, inflation, or GDP growth.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"\" data-start=\"451\" data-end=\"454\" \/>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"456\" data-end=\"519\"><strong data-start=\"463\" data-end=\"519\">Real-World Meaning of &#8220;Multiple Standard Deviations&#8221;<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"520\" data-end=\"712\">If a metric is <strong data-start=\"535\" data-end=\"578\">&#8220;2 standard deviations above the mean,&#8221;<\/strong> it means it is <strong data-start=\"594\" data-end=\"629\">significantly higher than usual<\/strong> \u2014 so much so that it happens only about 2.5% of the time in a normal distribution.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"\" data-start=\"714\" data-end=\"717\" \/>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"719\" data-end=\"827\">Current Examples (as of 2024-2025) of Economic\/Financial Metrics Showing Multiple Standard Deviations<\/h3>\n<blockquote data-start=\"829\" data-end=\"926\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"831\" data-end=\"926\">These examples reflect <strong data-start=\"854\" data-end=\"895\">extreme, unusual, or risky conditions<\/strong> \u2014 either positive or negative.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h4 class=\"\" data-start=\"928\" data-end=\"967\">1. <strong data-start=\"936\" data-end=\"967\">Inflation Volatility (U.S.)<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul data-start=\"968\" data-end=\"1168\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"968\" data-end=\"1087\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"970\" data-end=\"1087\"><strong data-start=\"970\" data-end=\"1000\">Core inflation variability<\/strong> has been <strong data-start=\"1010\" data-end=\"1044\">2\u20133 standard deviations higher<\/strong> than historical norms at times since 2021.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1088\" data-end=\"1168\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1090\" data-end=\"1168\">Caused by COVID shocks, war, supply chain issues, and erratic monetary policy.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4 class=\"\" data-start=\"1170\" data-end=\"1211\">2. <strong data-start=\"1178\" data-end=\"1211\">Federal Deficit (as % of GDP)<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul data-start=\"1212\" data-end=\"1374\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1212\" data-end=\"1374\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1214\" data-end=\"1374\">In fiscal 2024, the U.S. deficit was close to <strong data-start=\"1260\" data-end=\"1276\">6%\u20137% of GDP<\/strong>, <strong data-start=\"1278\" data-end=\"1309\">well above historical norms<\/strong> and <strong data-start=\"1314\" data-end=\"1349\">more than 2 standard deviations<\/strong> from peacetime averages.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4 class=\"\" data-start=\"1376\" data-end=\"1417\">3. <strong data-start=\"1384\" data-end=\"1417\">Home Prices vs. Median Income<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul data-start=\"1418\" data-end=\"1621\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1418\" data-end=\"1568\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1420\" data-end=\"1568\">Home price-to-income ratios in many U.S. cities (like San Francisco or Austin) are <strong data-start=\"1503\" data-end=\"1535\">2+ standard deviations above<\/strong> historic affordability measures.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1569\" data-end=\"1621\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1571\" data-end=\"1621\">Indicates housing bubbles or structural imbalance.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4 class=\"\" data-start=\"1623\" data-end=\"1676\">4. <strong data-start=\"1631\" data-end=\"1676\">Stock Market Valuation (e.g., CAPE Ratio)<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul data-start=\"1677\" data-end=\"1915\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1677\" data-end=\"1855\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1679\" data-end=\"1855\">The <strong data-start=\"1683\" data-end=\"1705\">Shiller CAPE ratio<\/strong> (cyclically adjusted PE) for the S&amp;P 500 is <strong data-start=\"1750\" data-end=\"1783\">well above long-term averages<\/strong> \u2014 often cited as <strong data-start=\"1801\" data-end=\"1834\">2\u20133 standard deviations above<\/strong> its historical mean.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1856\" data-end=\"1915\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1858\" data-end=\"1915\">Signals potential overvaluation or irrational exuberance.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4 class=\"\" data-start=\"1917\" data-end=\"1950\">5. <strong data-start=\"1925\" data-end=\"1950\">Corporate Debt Levels<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul data-start=\"1951\" data-end=\"2100\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1951\" data-end=\"2100\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1953\" data-end=\"2100\">Non-financial corporate debt as a % of GDP has spiked in recent years \u2014 <strong data-start=\"2025\" data-end=\"2048\">well above the mean<\/strong>, and <strong data-start=\"2054\" data-end=\"2079\">possibly 2 SDs higher<\/strong> than pre-2008 norms.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4 class=\"\" data-start=\"2102\" data-end=\"2145\">6. <strong data-start=\"2110\" data-end=\"2145\">Climate-related Economic Losses<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul data-start=\"2146\" data-end=\"2405\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"2146\" data-end=\"2292\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"2148\" data-end=\"2292\">Insured losses due to climate disasters (floods, fires, hurricanes) have become <strong data-start=\"2228\" data-end=\"2291\">multiple standard deviations above the 1980s\u20132000s averages<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"2293\" data-end=\"2405\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"2295\" data-end=\"2405\">Insurance companies and reinsurers now treat some events as <strong data-start=\"2355\" data-end=\"2404\">no longer \u201ctail risk\u201d but regular occurrences<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>From the album &#8220;<a href=\"\/songwriter\/tag\/deviation\/\">Deviation<\/a>&#8220;<\/h3>\n<h2><a href=\"http:\/\/membrane.com\/global_warming\/\">The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment<\/a><\/h2>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Deviation-0.mp3 Deviation-0.mp4 Deviation-I.mp3 Deviation-I.mp4 Deviation-intro.mp3 [Intro] Is your (Deviation) Standard (Man slandered) Civilization [Verse 1] You call this civilized Hopin&#8217; you&#8217;d realized We create deviate In all we relate [Bridge] Time we pull through We (me and you) [Chorus] Is our (Deviation) Standard (Man slandered) Civilization (Deviation) [Bridge] Devolution Sour (solution) [Verse 2] You call [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3,3945,9,14],"tags":[163,4118],"class_list":["post-42879","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-4d-music","category-change","category-daniel","category-lyrics","tag-climate-change","tag-deviation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42879","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42879"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42879\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42900,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42879\/revisions\/42900"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42879"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42879"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42879"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}