{"id":54396,"date":"2026-07-01T17:41:37","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T17:41:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/?p=54396"},"modified":"2026-07-01T17:41:37","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T17:41:37","slug":"what-are-the-odds-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/2026\/07\/01\/what-are-the-odds-2\/","title":{"rendered":"What Are the Odds?"},"content":{"rendered":"

[Silence}
\n[Arrangement: Cinematic electronic rock with pulsing low-end synth, rising tension layers, and explosive chorus sections]<\/p>\n

[Intro]
\nShift the curve
\n(Might to the right)
\nFeel the change
\n(Every night)<\/p>\n

Old assumptions
\n(Start to bend)
\nWhere does normal
\nWhether end?<\/p>\n

[Verse 1]
\nUsed to live
\n(In the middle line)
\nWhere extremes
\nWere rare in time<\/p>\n

But the edges
\n(Start to grow)
\nAnd the baseline
\n(Loses hold)<\/p>\n

Now the records
\n(Get reset)
\nBefore we\u2019ve even
\nCaught up yet<\/p>\n

What was rare
\n(Becomes routine)
\nOn a chart
\nWe\u2019ve never seen<\/p>\n

[Refrain]
\nWhat are the odds?
\n(More, longer, stronger)
\nShould we ask the gods…
\n(Fear the fearmonger?)<\/p>\n

What are the odds?
\n(Not like before)
\nThe tail is heavy
\n(And it\u2019s growing more)<\/p>\n

[Verse 2]
\nNot just warmer
\n(But off the scale)
\nStorms that linger
\n(Without fail)<\/p>\n

Rain that falls
\n(All at once)
\nThen nothing comes
\n(For months and months)<\/p>\n

Drought and flood
\n(Back to back)
\nA fractured system
\n(Off the track)<\/p>\n

Probability
\n(Starts to break)
\nWhen the past
\n(Is not the same)<\/p>\n

[Chorus]
\nWhat are the odds
\n(We\u2019re living through?)
\nThe right tail
\n(Coming into view)<\/p>\n

Not just change
\n(But distribution)
\nA shifting rule
\n(Not resolution)<\/p>\n

[Bridge]
\nIt\u2019s not just average
\n(On the rise)
\nIt\u2019s the extremes
\n(Multiplying size)<\/p>\n

A fattened tail
\n(Of risk and pain)
\nWhere \u201conce in a century\u201d
\n(Shows up again)<\/p>\n

[Breakdown]
\nOnce in a lifetime…
\n(Again and again)
\nRecord broken…
\n(Where, when?)<\/p>\n

Statistical comfort
\n(Disappears)
\nReplaced by
\n(Growing fears)<\/p>\n

[Final Refrain]
\nWhat are the odds?
\n(More, longer, stronger)
\nShould we ask the gods…
\n(Fear the fearmonger?)<\/p>\n

What are the odds?
\n(We adjust no more)
\nWhen the tail keeps growing
\n(Out the door)<\/p>\n

[Outro]
\nShift the curve
\n(It\u2019s moving right)
\nEvery year
\n(Into the night)<\/p>\n

What are the odds…
\n(We learn too late)
\nThat the tail
\n(Defines our fate)<\/p>\n

About the Song<\/p>\n

\n
\n \"Climate
\n <\/a>
\n
\n Climate Change Threshold-Driven Dynamics: A Unified State-Space Framework for Accelerating Earth System Energy Redistribution<\/a>
\n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Extreme heat waves, marine heatwaves, intense rainfall, flash flooding, atmospheric rivers, severe droughts, wildfire conditions, and the most powerful tropical cyclones are becoming more frequent, more intense, and longer-lasting. As the right tail of the distribution expands in both length (greater extremes) and breadth (greater frequency), events that were once considered exceptionally rare are occurring with increasing regularity, lasting longer, and causing greater destruction.<\/p>\n

This change in the probability distribution helps explain why record-breaking events are occurring with unprecedented frequency. A simple shift of the bell curve would increase average temperatures, but the emergence of a broad, heavy right tail fundamentally changes the odds. The climate system is no longer producing merely warmer versions of past weather\u2014it is generating a growing number of events that fall far outside the historical range of experience. The result is an increasing concentration of record-breaking extremes that disproportionately drive human, economic, and ecological impacts.<\/p>\n


\n Climate Change Threshold-Driven Dynamics: A Unified State-Space Framework for Accelerating Earth System Energy Redistribution<\/a><\/h3>\n

From the album “What\u2019s in a Name?<\/a>“<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[Silence} [Arrangement: Cinematic electronic rock with pulsing low-end synth, rising tension layers, and explosive chorus sections] [Intro] Shift the curve (Might to the right) Feel the change (Every night) Old assumptions (Start to bend) Where does normal Whether end? [Verse 1] Used to live (In the middle line) Where extremes Were rare in time But […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[163],"class_list":["post-54396","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-4d-music","tag-climate-change"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54396","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=54396"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54396\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":54401,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54396\/revisions\/54401"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=54396"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=54396"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=54396"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}