{"id":55918,"date":"2026-10-06T12:09:26","date_gmt":"2026-10-06T12:09:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/?p=55918"},"modified":"2026-10-09T21:01:19","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T21:01:19","slug":"thresholds-and-tripwires","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/2026\/10\/06\/thresholds-and-tripwires\/","title":{"rendered":"Thresholds and Tripwires"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[Intro]<br \/>\nLow and behold&#8230;<br \/>\nThere&#8217;s a fine line&#8230;<br \/>\nA number is told<br \/>\nAs the story unfolds&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>[Verse 1]<br \/>\nOne point four<br \/>\nThen one point five<br \/>\nNothing magical<br \/>\nKeeps us alive<\/p>\n<p>A threshold ain&#8217;t<br \/>\nA brick wall<br \/>\nIt&#8217;s a place<br \/>\nWhere the odds change &#8220;over all&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>A warning line<br \/>\nIn a moving game<br \/>\nThe situation changes<br \/>\nBut the stakes ain&#8217;t the same<\/p>\n<p>[Pre-Chorus]<br \/>\nOne more chance<br \/>\nOne last glance<br \/>\nOne more dance<\/p>\n<p>The wire is waiting<br \/>\nHidden from view<br \/>\nYou don&#8217;t know exactly<br \/>\nWhat it will do to you<\/p>\n<p>[Refrain]<br \/>\nLow and behold&#8230;<br \/>\n(&#8230; through&#8230;)<br \/>\n&#8230; the threshold&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Trip (trip) tripin&#8217;<br \/>\n(Over the wire)<br \/>\nTrippin&#8217;&#8230;<br \/>\n(Into the dire)<\/p>\n<p>[Verse 2]<br \/>\nSurprisingly&#8230;<br \/>\nAin&#8217;t a magic door<br \/>\nWhere everything suddenly<br \/>\nGets worse than before<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s probability<br \/>\nStacked in the air<br \/>\nFeedbacks awakening<br \/>\nEverywhere<\/p>\n<p>[Refrain]<br \/>\nLow and behold&#8230;<br \/>\n(&#8230; through&#8230;)<br \/>\n&#8230; the threshold&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Trip (trip) tripin&#8217;<br \/>\n(Over the wire)<br \/>\nTrippin&#8217;&#8230;<br \/>\n(Into the dire)<\/p>\n<p>[Bridge]<br \/>\nOne tripwire&#8230;<br \/>\nslight time transpire&#8230;<br \/>\n&#8230; tripwire&#8230;<br \/>\n(Wrapped in barbwire)<\/p>\n<p>You thought there&#8217;d be<br \/>\nA warning light<br \/>\nA siren<br \/>\nA flashing sign<\/p>\n<p>Surprise?<br \/>\n(Open your eyes)<\/p>\n<p>Nothing new (knew)<br \/>\nAll your fears&#8230;<br \/>\n(Have been known for years)<\/p>\n<p>[Instrumental]<\/p>\n<p>So don&#8217;t ask me<br \/>\n(If you can see)<br \/>\nThe scene (is seen)<\/p>\n<p>[Refrain]<br \/>\nLow and behold&#8230;<br \/>\n(&#8230; through&#8230;)<br \/>\n&#8230; the threshold&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Trip (trip) tripin&#8217;<br \/>\n(Over the wire)<br \/>\nTrippin&#8217;&#8230;<br \/>\n(Into the dire)<\/p>\n<p>[Outro]<br \/>\nLow and behold&#8230;<br \/>\n(&#8230; probability)<br \/>\nThe threshold&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Trip (trip) tripin&#8217;<br \/>\n(Over the wire)<br \/>\nTrippin&#8217;&#8230;<br \/>\n(Into the dire)<\/p>\n<p>One point five&#8230;<br \/>\n(Still alive)<\/p>\n<p>One point five&#8230;<br \/>\n(Now try to survive&#8230;)<\/p>\n<p>Trip (trip) trippin&#8217;<br \/>\n&#8230; the tripwire&#8230;<br \/>\nTripwire&#8230;<br \/>\n&#8230; wire&#8230;<br \/>\n&#8230; wire&#8230;<br \/>\n&#8230; dire&#8230;<\/p>\n<figure style=\"width:25%; float:right; margin:0 0 20px 25px; text-align:center;\">\n    <a href=\"\/global_warming\/climate-graphics\/Tipping-Point-Tripwire.png\"><br \/>\n        <img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"\/global_warming\/climate-graphics\/Tipping-Point-Tripwire.png\"\n            alt=\"Climate Change: The 1.5C Tripwire\"\n            style=\"display:block; width:100%; height:auto;\"\n        \/><br \/>\n    <\/a><br \/>\n<\/figure>\n<p>About the Song<br \/>\nThe 1.5\u00b0C threshold identified in the Paris Agreement\u2014and the roughly 2\u00b0C level generally regarded as an even more dangerous boundary\u2014is not important because the difference between 1.4\u00b0C and 1.5\u00b0C is somehow magical. These numbers matter because increasing global temperatures raise the probability of triggering major climate tipping points.<\/p>\n<p>And once tipping points begin to activate, the question of whether warming ultimately reaches 2\u00b0C, 3\u00b0C, or even 4\u20137\u00b0C becomes much less relevant for two fundamental reasons:<\/p>\n<p>First, tipping points can initiate self-reinforcing feedbacks that continue driving change even after the original forcing changes.<\/p>\n<p>Second, the impacts do not necessarily increase gradually with temperature. They can accelerate, compound, and cascade as interconnected systems begin to destabilize.<\/p>\n<p>In other words, 1.5\u00b0C is not a destination. It is not merely a warning sign or an alarm. It is a tripwire.<\/p>\n<p>From the album <strong>&#8220;<a href=\"\/albums\/Feedback-Coupling\/\">Feedback Coupling<\/a>&#8220;<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[Intro] Low and behold&#8230; There&#8217;s a fine line&#8230; A number is told As the story unfolds&#8230; [Verse 1] One point four Then one point five Nothing magical Keeps us alive A threshold ain&#8217;t A brick wall It&#8217;s a place Where the odds change &#8220;over all&#8221; A warning line In a moving game The situation changes [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","nfd_image_url":"","nfd_onboarding_generated":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3,5],"tags":[163],"class_list":["post-55918","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-4d-music","category-chaos-theory","tag-climate-change"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55918","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55918"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55918\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":55924,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55918\/revisions\/55924"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55918"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55918"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55918"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}