{"id":42737,"date":"2025-04-09T12:47:32","date_gmt":"2025-04-09T12:47:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/idea.membrane.com\/songwriter\/?p=42737"},"modified":"2025-04-09T12:47:32","modified_gmt":"2025-04-09T12:47:32","slug":"dropping","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/2025\/04\/09\/dropping\/","title":{"rendered":"Dropping"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Dropping-0.mp3\">Dropping-0.mp3<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Dropping-0.mp4\">Dropping-0.mp4<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Dropping-I.mp3\">Dropping-I.mp3<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Dropping-I.mp4\">Dropping-I.mp4<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Dropping-intro.mp3\">Dropping-intro.mp3<\/a><\/p>\n<p>[Intro]<br \/>\nDropping<br \/>\n(Like a rock)<br \/>\nRocking<br \/>\n(Best take stock)<\/p>\n<p>[Verse 1]<br \/>\nA chaotic decline<br \/>\nKind to break a spine<br \/>\nFalling faster (and faster)<br \/>\nExponential disaster<\/p>\n<p>[Chorus]<br \/>\nDropping<br \/>\n(Like a rock)<br \/>\nRocking<br \/>\n(Best take stock)<\/p>\n<p>[Bridge]<br \/>\nA falling knife<br \/>\n(Best think twice)<br \/>\nHave to sell your wife<br \/>\n(Rolling the dice)<\/p>\n<p>[Verse 2]<br \/>\nA chaotic fall<br \/>\nA fall for us all<br \/>\nFalling faster (and faster)<br \/>\nExponential disaster<\/p>\n<p>[Chorus]<br \/>\nDropping<br \/>\n(Like a rock)<br \/>\nRocking<br \/>\n(Best take stock)<\/p>\n<p>[Bridge]<br \/>\nA falling knife<br \/>\n(Best think twice)<br \/>\nHave to sell your wife<br \/>\n(Betting with your life)<\/p>\n<p>[Chorus]<br \/>\nDropping<br \/>\n(Like a rock)<br \/>\nRocking<br \/>\n(Best take stock)<\/p>\n<p>[Outro]<br \/>\nA falling knife<br \/>\n(Best think twice)<br \/>\nHave to sell your wife<br \/>\n(Betting with your life)<\/p>\n<p>A SCIENCE NOTE<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"65\" data-end=\"183\">The stock market \u2014 especially during a crash \u2014 behaves like a <em data-start=\"131\" data-end=\"140\">chaotic<\/em> system, not a linear or purely random one.<\/h3>\n<h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"190\" data-end=\"241\">Here&#8217;s How Chaos Theory Explains a Market Crash:<\/h2>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"243\" data-end=\"311\">1. Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions (Butterfly Effect)<\/h3>\n<blockquote data-start=\"312\" data-end=\"346\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"314\" data-end=\"346\">Tiny changes \u2192 outsized effects.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<ul data-start=\"348\" data-end=\"513\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"348\" data-end=\"410\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"350\" data-end=\"410\">In normal markets: news moves prices <em data-start=\"387\" data-end=\"397\">somewhat<\/em> predictably.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"411\" data-end=\"510\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"413\" data-end=\"510\">In panics: <em data-start=\"424\" data-end=\"434\">anything<\/em> (bad earnings, policy tweet, random rumor) can trigger <em data-start=\"490\" data-end=\"501\">cascading<\/em> selling.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"514\" data-end=\"579\">This is why crashes often start <em data-start=\"546\" data-end=\"553\">small<\/em> \u2014 then suddenly snowball.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"586\" data-end=\"627\">2. Feedback Loops Amplify Instability<\/h3>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"628\" data-end=\"669\">Chaos systems are full of feedback loops.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"671\" data-end=\"686\">Market Example:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"687\" data-end=\"810\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"687\" data-end=\"810\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"689\" data-end=\"810\">Price drops \u2192 triggers margin calls \u2192 triggers forced selling \u2192 drives price lower \u2192 triggers more margin calls \u2192 repeat.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"812\" data-end=\"833\">Other Feedback Loops:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"834\" data-end=\"951\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"834\" data-end=\"856\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"836\" data-end=\"856\">Algorithmic selling.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"857\" data-end=\"878\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"859\" data-end=\"878\">Stop-loss triggers.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"879\" data-end=\"894\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"881\" data-end=\"894\">ETF outflows.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"895\" data-end=\"951\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"897\" data-end=\"951\">Option hedging gone wrong (gamma squeezes in reverse).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"953\" data-end=\"988\">Result \u2192 Violent, non-linear moves.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"995\" data-end=\"1036\">3. Fractal Patterns in Price Movement<\/h3>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1037\" data-end=\"1132\">Market crashes often show <em data-start=\"1063\" data-end=\"1080\">self-similarity<\/em> at different time scales \u2014 a classic fractal trait.<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1134\" data-end=\"1255\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1134\" data-end=\"1176\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1136\" data-end=\"1176\">1-minute chart \u2192 sharp drops &amp; rebounds.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1177\" data-end=\"1214\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1179\" data-end=\"1214\">Daily chart \u2192 same jagged patterns.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1215\" data-end=\"1255\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1217\" data-end=\"1255\">Weekly chart \u2192 still looks like chaos.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1257\" data-end=\"1361\">Chaos theory predicts this \u2014 because the forces driving action at all scales are <em data-start=\"1338\" data-end=\"1352\">structurally<\/em> similar.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"1368\" data-end=\"1395\">4. No Predictable Floor<\/h3>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1396\" data-end=\"1415\">In chaotic systems:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1416\" data-end=\"1484\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1416\" data-end=\"1440\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1418\" data-end=\"1440\"><em data-start=\"1418\" data-end=\"1428\">Patterns<\/em> emerge&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1441\" data-end=\"1484\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1443\" data-end=\"1484\">But <em data-start=\"1447\" data-end=\"1454\">exact<\/em> outcomes cannot be predicted.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1486\" data-end=\"1595\">\u2192 This explains why technical support levels <em data-start=\"1531\" data-end=\"1542\">sometimes<\/em> work \u2014 but often fail spectacularly in a true crash.<\/p>\n<blockquote data-start=\"1597\" data-end=\"1656\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1599\" data-end=\"1656\">&#8220;The floor only exists until everyone agrees it doesn&#8217;t.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"1663\" data-end=\"1699\">5. Order <em data-start=\"1675\" data-end=\"1684\">Emerges<\/em> After Disorder<\/h2>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1700\" data-end=\"1797\">Chaos systems often <em data-start=\"1720\" data-end=\"1735\">self-organize<\/em> into new stable patterns \u2014 but not on a predictable schedule.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1799\" data-end=\"1810\">In markets:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1811\" data-end=\"1914\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1811\" data-end=\"1852\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1813\" data-end=\"1852\">Stabilizers eventually overpower panic.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1853\" data-end=\"1880\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1855\" data-end=\"1880\">Valuation buyers step in.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1881\" data-end=\"1914\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1883\" data-end=\"1914\">Forced selling exhausts itself.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1916\" data-end=\"1965\">But <em data-start=\"1920\" data-end=\"1926\">when<\/em> this happens is unknowable in advance.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"1972\" data-end=\"1986\">In Summary:<\/h2>\n<blockquote data-start=\"1987\" data-end=\"2066\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1989\" data-end=\"2066\"><em data-start=\"1989\" data-end=\"2066\">A market crash is the perfect real-world example of chaos theory in action.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"2068\" data-end=\"2316\">\u2192 Small triggers lead to huge consequences.<br data-start=\"2111\" data-end=\"2114\" \/>\u2192 Feedback loops accelerate instability.<br data-start=\"2154\" data-end=\"2157\" \/>\u2192 Non-linear, jagged price moves dominate.<br data-start=\"2199\" data-end=\"2202\" \/>\u2192 Short-term randomness \u2014 long-term pattern formation.<br data-start=\"2256\" data-end=\"2259\" \/>\u2192 Order only emerges <em data-start=\"2280\" data-end=\"2287\">after<\/em> volatility burns itself out.<\/p>\n<p>From the album &#8220;<a href=\"\/songwriter\/tag\/collapse\/\">Collapse<\/a>&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2><a href=\"http:\/\/membrane.com\/global_warming\/\">The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment<\/a><\/h2>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dropping-0.mp3 Dropping-0.mp4 Dropping-I.mp3 Dropping-I.mp4 Dropping-intro.mp3 [Intro] Dropping (Like a rock) Rocking (Best take stock) [Verse 1] A chaotic decline Kind to break a spine Falling faster (and faster) Exponential disaster [Chorus] Dropping (Like a rock) Rocking (Best take stock) [Bridge] A falling knife (Best think twice) Have to sell your wife (Rolling the dice) [Verse [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3,5,9,14],"tags":[4116],"class_list":["post-42737","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-4d-music","category-chaos-theory","category-daniel","category-lyrics","tag-collapse"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42737","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42737"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42737\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42755,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42737\/revisions\/42755"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42737"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42737"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42737"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}