{"id":42932,"date":"2025-04-16T11:44:31","date_gmt":"2025-04-16T11:44:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/idea.membrane.com\/songwriter\/?p=42932"},"modified":"2025-04-16T11:44:31","modified_gmt":"2025-04-16T11:44:31","slug":"askew","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/2025\/04\/16\/askew\/","title":{"rendered":"Askew"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Askew-0.mp3\">Askew-0.mp3<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Askew-0.mp4\">Askew-0.mp4<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Askew-I.mp3\">Askew-I.mp3<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Askew-I.mp4\">Askew-I.mp4<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Askew-II.mp3\">Askew-II.mp3<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Askew-II.mp4\">Askew-II.mp4<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Askew-III.mp3\">Askew-III.mp3<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Askew-III.mp4\">Askew-III.mp4<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Askew-intro.mp3\">Askew-intro.mp3<\/a><\/p>\n<p>[Intro]<br \/>\nLike a speedometer (Our barometer)<br \/>\nWith a broken needle (Going fetal)<br \/>\nBarreling toward a cliff (Societal riff)<br \/>\nCan we pull through?<\/p>\n<p>[Bridge]<br \/>\nAll&#8217;s askew<br \/>\n(What cha gonna do?)<\/p>\n<p>[Verse 1]<br \/>\nUnderestimate<br \/>\nAcceleration rate<br \/>\nIgnore some more<br \/>\nWill we endure<\/p>\n<p>[Chorus]<br \/>\nLike a speedometer (Our barometer)<br \/>\nWith a broken needle (Going fetal)<br \/>\nBarreling toward a cliff (Societal riff)<br \/>\nCan we pull through?<\/p>\n<p>[Bridge]<br \/>\nAll&#8217;s askew<br \/>\n(What cha gonna do?)<\/p>\n<p>[Verse 2]<br \/>\nConceal damage<br \/>\nOf our age<br \/>\nFlukes born<br \/>\nNow the norm<\/p>\n<p>[Chorus]<br \/>\nLike a speedometer (Our barometer)<br \/>\nWith a broken needle (Going fetal)<br \/>\nBarreling toward a cliff (Societal riff)<br \/>\nCan we pull through?<\/p>\n<p>[Bridge]<br \/>\nAll&#8217;s askew<br \/>\n(What cha gonna do?)<\/p>\n<p>[Chorus]<br \/>\nLike a speedometer (Our barometer)<br \/>\nWith a broken needle (Going fetal)<br \/>\nBarreling toward a cliff (Societal riff)<br \/>\nCan we pull through?<\/p>\n<p>[Outro]<br \/>\nAll&#8217;s askew<br \/>\n(What cha gonna do?)<\/p>\n<p>A SCIENCE NOTE<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"0\" data-end=\"237\">What\u2019s <strong data-start=\"7\" data-end=\"16\">askew<\/strong> in the statistics of the climate crisis? Quite a bit \u2014 and in deep, structural ways. Here&#8217;s a breakdown of how the <strong data-start=\"132\" data-end=\"174\">data is distorted, lagging, or misused<\/strong>, which makes it hard to grasp the true scope of the emergency:<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"244\" data-end=\"288\">1. <strong data-start=\"254\" data-end=\"288\">Underreporting and Lag Effects<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"289\" data-end=\"591\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"289\" data-end=\"394\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"291\" data-end=\"394\">Climate damage is cumulative and delayed. Today\u2019s emissions won\u2019t show full impact for decades.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"395\" data-end=\"501\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"397\" data-end=\"501\">Official stats often exclude long-term costs (e.g. ocean acidification, permafrost methane release).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"502\" data-end=\"591\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"504\" data-end=\"591\">Metrics like GDP count disaster rebuilding as economic growth, masking real damage.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"598\" data-end=\"629\">2. <strong data-start=\"608\" data-end=\"629\">Fat Tails Ignored<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"630\" data-end=\"896\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"630\" data-end=\"736\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"632\" data-end=\"736\">Climate risk has &#8220;fat tails&#8221; \u2014 meaning extreme events are more likely than normal models assume.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"737\" data-end=\"850\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"739\" data-end=\"850\">But governments often use linear projections or normal distributions, downplaying worst-case scenarios.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"851\" data-end=\"896\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"853\" data-end=\"896\">This creates a false sense of security.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"903\" data-end=\"950\">3. <strong data-start=\"913\" data-end=\"950\">Local Extremes Hidden by Averages<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"951\" data-end=\"1176\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"951\" data-end=\"1078\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"953\" data-end=\"1008\">Global temperature averages blur local devastation.<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1011\" data-end=\"1078\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1011\" data-end=\"1078\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1013\" data-end=\"1078\">Example: A 1.5\u00b0C rise globally might mean 5\u00b0C+ in the Arctic.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1079\" data-end=\"1176\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1081\" data-end=\"1176\">Rainfall data is averaged, masking flash floods, drought clusters, or weather whiplash.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"1183\" data-end=\"1230\">4. <strong data-start=\"1193\" data-end=\"1230\">Standard Deviations Are Now Norms<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"1231\" data-end=\"1457\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1231\" data-end=\"1342\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1233\" data-end=\"1342\">What used to be 3-sigma (once-in-a-century) weather is now common \u2014 but the framing hasn&#8217;t caught up.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1343\" data-end=\"1457\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1345\" data-end=\"1457\">Insurance models, infrastructure codes, and risk planning are still based on outdated \u201cnormal\u201d weather data.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"1464\" data-end=\"1508\">\u00a05. <strong data-start=\"1474\" data-end=\"1508\">Externalities and Hidden Costs<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"1509\" data-end=\"1721\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1509\" data-end=\"1594\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1511\" data-end=\"1594\">Fossil fuels appear &#8220;cheap&#8221; only because their climate costs are off the books.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1595\" data-end=\"1721\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1597\" data-end=\"1721\">U.S. subsidies and military spending to secure fossil energy aren&#8217;t counted as climate costs \u2014 a statistical blind spot.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"1728\" data-end=\"1742\">Summary<\/h3>\n<blockquote data-start=\"1744\" data-end=\"1989\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1746\" data-end=\"1817\">The climate crisis is <strong data-start=\"1768\" data-end=\"1791\">statistically askew<\/strong> because the tools we use:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1820\" data-end=\"1989\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1820\" data-end=\"1855\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1822\" data-end=\"1855\">Underestimate <strong data-start=\"1836\" data-end=\"1854\">nonlinear risk<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1858\" data-end=\"1887\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1860\" data-end=\"1887\">Ignore <strong data-start=\"1867\" data-end=\"1886\">delayed effects<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1890\" data-end=\"1923\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1892\" data-end=\"1923\">Conceal damage behind averages.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1926\" data-end=\"1989\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1928\" data-end=\"1989\">Treat <strong data-start=\"1934\" data-end=\"1956\">outliers as flukes<\/strong>, when they\u2019re becoming the norm.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1991\" data-end=\"2077\">It&#8217;s like using a <strong data-start=\"2009\" data-end=\"2045\">speedometer with a broken needle<\/strong> while barreling toward a cliff.<\/p>\n<h3>From the album &#8220;<a href=\"\/songwriter\/tag\/deviation\/\">Deviation<\/a>&#8220;<\/h3>\n<h2><a href=\"http:\/\/membrane.com\/global_warming\/\">The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment<\/a><\/h2>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Askew-0.mp3 Askew-0.mp4 Askew-I.mp3 Askew-I.mp4 Askew-II.mp3 Askew-II.mp4 Askew-III.mp3 Askew-III.mp4 Askew-intro.mp3 [Intro] Like a speedometer (Our barometer) With a broken needle (Going fetal) Barreling toward a cliff (Societal riff) Can we pull through? [Bridge] All&#8217;s askew (What cha gonna do?) [Verse 1] Underestimate Acceleration rate Ignore some more Will we endure [Chorus] Like a speedometer (Our barometer) [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3,5,9,14],"tags":[163,4118],"class_list":["post-42932","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-4d-music","category-chaos-theory","category-daniel","category-lyrics","tag-climate-change","tag-deviation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42932","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42932"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42932\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42945,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42932\/revisions\/42945"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42932"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42932"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42932"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}