{"id":42938,"date":"2025-04-16T11:49:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-16T11:49:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/idea.membrane.com\/songwriter\/?p=42938"},"modified":"2025-04-16T11:49:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-16T11:49:00","slug":"strength-of-the-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/2025\/04\/16\/strength-of-the-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"Strength of the Dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Strength-of-the-Dollar-0.mp3\">Strength-of-the-Dollar-0.mp3<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Strength-of-the-Dollar-0.mp4\">Strength-of-the-Dollar-0.mp4<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Strength-of-the-Dollar-I.mp3\">Strength-of-the-Dollar-I.mp3<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Strength-of-the-Dollar-I.mp4\">Strength-of-the-Dollar-I.mp4<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Strength-of-the-Dollar-intro.mp3\">Strength-of-the-Dollar-intro.mp3<\/a><\/p>\n<p>[Intro]<br \/>\nIs the dollar going down<br \/>\n(Down, down, down)<\/p>\n<p>[Bridge]<br \/>\nJust look around<\/p>\n<p>[Verse 1]<br \/>\nForeign exchange<br \/>\nBeen getting strange<br \/>\nTryin&#8217; to make sense<br \/>\nOf dollars and cents<\/p>\n<p>[Chorus]<br \/>\nThe capital flight<br \/>\n(Is in sight)<br \/>\nIs the dollar going down<br \/>\n(Down, down, down)<\/p>\n<p>[Bridge]<br \/>\nJust look around<\/p>\n<p>[Verse 2]<br \/>\nThings are getting funny<br \/>\nWith all our money<br \/>\nThe president<br \/>\nSold us for rent<\/p>\n<p>[Chorus]<br \/>\nThe capital flight<br \/>\n(Is in sight)<br \/>\nIs the dollar going down<br \/>\n(Down, down, down)<\/p>\n<p>[Bridge]<br \/>\nJust look around<\/p>\n<p>[Chorus]<br \/>\nThe capital flight<br \/>\n(Is in sight)<br \/>\nIs the dollar going down<br \/>\n(Down, down, down)<\/p>\n<p>[Outro]<br \/>\nIs the dollar going down<br \/>\n(Down, down, down)<br \/>\nJust look around<\/p>\n<p>A SCIENCE NOTE<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"0\" data-end=\"213\">The U.S. dollar (USD) has recently moved <strong data-start=\"41\" data-end=\"107\">more than one standard deviation away from its historical norm<\/strong> in several important ways \u2014 particularly in <strong data-start=\"152\" data-end=\"200\">real value, global dominance, and volatility<\/strong>. Here&#8217;s how:<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"220\" data-end=\"271\">1. <strong data-start=\"230\" data-end=\"269\">Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"272\" data-end=\"353\">The <strong data-start=\"276\" data-end=\"284\">REER<\/strong>, which adjusts the dollar for inflation and trade weights, has been:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"354\" data-end=\"547\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"354\" data-end=\"441\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"356\" data-end=\"441\"><strong data-start=\"356\" data-end=\"414\">&gt;1 standard deviation above its 20- or 30-year average<\/strong> multiple times since 2022.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"442\" data-end=\"547\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"444\" data-end=\"547\">Driven by aggressive <strong data-start=\"465\" data-end=\"483\">Fed rate hikes<\/strong>, global demand for dollar safety, and geopolitical instability.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote data-start=\"549\" data-end=\"680\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"551\" data-end=\"680\">\u00a0A stronger dollar sounds good, but it <strong data-start=\"592\" data-end=\"609\">hurts exports<\/strong>, destabilizes emerging markets, and <strong data-start=\"646\" data-end=\"679\">increases global debt burdens<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"687\" data-end=\"737\">2. <strong data-start=\"697\" data-end=\"737\">Overconcentration in Global Reserves<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"738\" data-end=\"1042\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"738\" data-end=\"804\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"740\" data-end=\"804\">The USD still makes up <strong data-start=\"763\" data-end=\"803\">~60% of global central bank reserves<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"805\" data-end=\"1042\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"807\" data-end=\"871\">But there&#8217;s now a statistically <strong data-start=\"839\" data-end=\"862\">abnormal divergence<\/strong> between:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"874\" data-end=\"1042\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"874\" data-end=\"928\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"876\" data-end=\"928\">Dollar usage in <strong data-start=\"892\" data-end=\"910\">reserves\/trade<\/strong> (still dominant).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"931\" data-end=\"1039\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"933\" data-end=\"1039\">And <strong data-start=\"937\" data-end=\"960\">alternative systems<\/strong> rising fast (e.g., China&#8217;s yuan in BRICS, digital currencies, barter systems).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote data-start=\"1043\" data-end=\"1156\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1045\" data-end=\"1156\">This mismatch reflects a <strong data-start=\"1070\" data-end=\"1098\">cracked monetary fractal<\/strong> \u2014 a fragile dominance built on inertia, not fundamentals.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"1163\" data-end=\"1201\">3. <strong data-start=\"1173\" data-end=\"1201\">Purchasing Power Decline<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"1202\" data-end=\"1479\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1202\" data-end=\"1355\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1204\" data-end=\"1355\">The <strong data-start=\"1208\" data-end=\"1233\">real purchasing power<\/strong> of the dollar (adjusted for inflation) has fallen more than <strong data-start=\"1294\" data-end=\"1321\">1.5 standard deviations<\/strong> below its 20th-century trendline.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1356\" data-end=\"1479\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1358\" data-end=\"1368\">Traced to:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1371\" data-end=\"1479\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1371\" data-end=\"1408\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1373\" data-end=\"1408\">COVID-era fiscal\/monetary stimulus,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1411\" data-end=\"1439\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1413\" data-end=\"1439\">Post-2020 inflation spike,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1442\" data-end=\"1479\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1444\" data-end=\"1479\">Wage stagnation vs. consumer costs.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"1486\" data-end=\"1538\">4. <strong data-start=\"1496\" data-end=\"1538\">Dollar Volatility and Financial Stress<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"1539\" data-end=\"1803\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1539\" data-end=\"1803\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1541\" data-end=\"1691\">USD volatility, measured via <strong data-start=\"1570\" data-end=\"1592\">DXY (Dollar Index)<\/strong> and <strong data-start=\"1597\" data-end=\"1627\">options implied volatility<\/strong>, has spiked to levels well <strong data-start=\"1655\" data-end=\"1683\">above 1 SD from baseline<\/strong> during:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1694\" data-end=\"1803\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1694\" data-end=\"1712\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1696\" data-end=\"1712\">Fed rate shocks,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1715\" data-end=\"1753\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1717\" data-end=\"1753\">Banking scares (e.g., SVB collapse),<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1756\" data-end=\"1803\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1758\" data-end=\"1803\">Geopolitical tensions (Ukraine, Middle East).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"1810\" data-end=\"1824\">\u00a0Summary<\/h3>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1826\" data-end=\"1904\">The U.S. dollar is now behaving <strong data-start=\"1858\" data-end=\"1903\">outside its historical statistical bounds<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<div class=\"overflow-x-auto contain-inline-size\">\n<table data-start=\"1906\" data-end=\"2499\">\n<thead data-start=\"1906\" data-end=\"2004\">\n<tr data-start=\"1906\" data-end=\"2004\">\n<th data-start=\"1906\" data-end=\"1938\">Metric<\/th>\n<th data-start=\"1938\" data-end=\"1969\">Status<\/th>\n<th data-start=\"1969\" data-end=\"2004\">Std. Dev. Context<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody data-start=\"2104\" data-end=\"2499\">\n<tr data-start=\"2104\" data-end=\"2202\">\n<td>Real Exchange Rate (REER)<\/td>\n<td>Above historical norm<\/td>\n<td>&gt; +1 SD<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr data-start=\"2203\" data-end=\"2301\">\n<td>Purchasing Power<\/td>\n<td>Below long-term trend<\/td>\n<td>~\u20131.5 SD<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr data-start=\"2302\" data-end=\"2400\">\n<td>Global Reserve Share vs Use<\/td>\n<td>Growing divergence<\/td>\n<td>Structural imbalance<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr data-start=\"2401\" data-end=\"2499\">\n<td>Volatility (DXY, VIX)<\/td>\n<td>Spiked in stress periods<\/td>\n<td>Often &gt; +1 SD<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<h3>From the album &#8220;<a href=\"\/songwriter\/tag\/deviation\/\">Deviation<\/a>&#8220;<\/h3>\n<h2><a href=\"http:\/\/membrane.com\/global_warming\/\">The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment<\/a><\/h2>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Strength-of-the-Dollar-0.mp3 Strength-of-the-Dollar-0.mp4 Strength-of-the-Dollar-I.mp3 Strength-of-the-Dollar-I.mp4 Strength-of-the-Dollar-intro.mp3 [Intro] Is the dollar going down (Down, down, down) [Bridge] Just look around [Verse 1] Foreign exchange Been getting strange Tryin&#8217; to make sense Of dollars and cents [Chorus] The capital flight (Is in sight) Is the dollar going down (Down, down, down) [Bridge] Just look around [Verse 2] Things [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[9,14],"tags":[4118],"class_list":["post-42938","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-daniel","category-lyrics","tag-deviation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42938","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42938"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42938\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42946,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42938\/revisions\/42946"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42938"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42938"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42938"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}