{"id":42948,"date":"2025-04-17T11:58:17","date_gmt":"2025-04-17T11:58:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/idea.membrane.com\/songwriter\/?p=42948"},"modified":"2025-04-17T11:58:17","modified_gmt":"2025-04-17T11:58:17","slug":"bond-shaken-not-stirred","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/2025\/04\/17\/bond-shaken-not-stirred\/","title":{"rendered":"Bond (Shaken not Stirred)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Bond__Shaken-Not-Stirred-0.mp3\">Bond__Shaken-Not-Stirred-0.mp3<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Bond__Shaken-Not-Stirred-0.mp4\">Bond__Shaken-Not-Stirred-0.mp4<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Bond__Shaken-Not-Stirred-I.mp3\">Bond__Shaken-Not-Stirred-I.mp3<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Bond__Shaken-Not-Stirred-I.mp4\">Bond__Shaken-Not-Stirred-I.mp4<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Bond__Shaken-Not-Stirred-intro.mp3\">BBond__Shaken-Not-Stirred-intro.mp3<\/a><\/p>\n<p>[Intro]<br \/>\nJames, Bond&#8230; Shaken<br \/>\n(Not stirred)<br \/>\nOdds taken<br \/>\nLoss incurred<\/p>\n<p>[Verse 1]<br \/>\nStandard deviation<br \/>\n(Situation)<br \/>\nExtreme behavior<br \/>\n(Needs a savior)<\/p>\n<p>[Chorus]<br \/>\nJames, Bond&#8230; Shaken<br \/>\n(Not stirred)<br \/>\nOdds taken<br \/>\n(Loss incurred)<\/p>\n<p>[Bridge]<br \/>\nThere ain&#8217;t no heaven<br \/>\nIn our safe haven<br \/>\nFiscal fragility<br \/>\nDegraded ability<\/p>\n<p>[Verse 2]<br \/>\nChaotic, cracked, and misaligned<br \/>\nShould have read the warning signs<br \/>\nThe rate of risk extremely brisk<br \/>\nYield inversion invasion<\/p>\n<p>[Chorus]<br \/>\nJames, Bond&#8230; Shaken<br \/>\n(Not stirred)<br \/>\nOdds taken<br \/>\n(Loss incurred)<\/p>\n<p>[Bridge]<br \/>\nThere ain&#8217;t no heaven<br \/>\nIn our safe haven<br \/>\nFiscal fragility<br \/>\nDegraded ability<\/p>\n<p>[Outro]<br \/>\nBond, James&#8230; Shaken<br \/>\n(Lines blurred)<br \/>\nOdds taken<br \/>\n(Loss incurred)<\/p>\n<p>ABOUT THE SONG<br \/>\nExceeding a <strong data-start=\"12\" data-end=\"34\">standard deviation<\/strong> means that a data point is significantly different from the average \u2014 a <strong data-start=\"107\" data-end=\"131\">statistical red flag<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"134\" data-end=\"158\">In finance or economics:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"159\" data-end=\"333\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"159\" data-end=\"220\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"161\" data-end=\"220\">A move of <strong data-start=\"171\" data-end=\"195\">1 standard deviation<\/strong> is unusual but not rare.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"221\" data-end=\"330\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"223\" data-end=\"330\"><strong data-start=\"223\" data-end=\"236\">2 or more<\/strong> indicates <strong data-start=\"247\" data-end=\"267\">extreme behavior<\/strong> \u2014 often signaling <strong data-start=\"286\" data-end=\"329\">stress, instability, or systemic change<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote data-start=\"334\" data-end=\"570\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"336\" data-end=\"570\">When U.S. Treasury bonds \u2014 historically the world\u2019s most stable asset \u2014 move multiple standard deviations, it\u2019s not just noise. It suggests <strong data-start=\"476\" data-end=\"502\">deep structural shifts<\/strong> in fiscal policy, market confidence, or macroeconomic expectations.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"0\" data-end=\"209\">U.S. Treasury bonds \u2014 especially long-duration ones like the <strong data-start=\"61\" data-end=\"72\">10-year<\/strong> and <strong data-start=\"77\" data-end=\"99\">30-year Treasuries<\/strong> \u2014 have <strong data-start=\"107\" data-end=\"160\">recently deviated by multiple standard deviations<\/strong> from historical norms in several key dimensions.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"216\" data-end=\"286\">1. <strong data-start=\"226\" data-end=\"286\">Yields Have Spiked Over 3 Standard Deviations Above the Mean<\/strong><\/h3>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"712\" data-end=\"768\">2. <strong data-start=\"722\" data-end=\"768\">Price Declines = Largest in Modern History<\/strong><\/h3>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"1089\" data-end=\"1154\">3. <strong data-start=\"1099\" data-end=\"1154\">Volatility (MOVE Index) Spiked Over 2\u20133 SD Above Normal<\/strong><\/h3>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"1374\" data-end=\"1436\">4. <strong data-start=\"1384\" data-end=\"1436\">Inversion of the Yield Curve: Deep and Prolonged<\/strong><\/h3>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"2384\" data-end=\"2405\">Why It Matters<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"2406\" data-end=\"2695\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"2406\" data-end=\"2502\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"2408\" data-end=\"2502\">Bonds are usually the <strong data-start=\"2430\" data-end=\"2446\">\u201csafe haven\u201d<\/strong> \u2014 but now they\u2019re <strong data-start=\"2465\" data-end=\"2501\">chaotic, cracked, and misaligned<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"2503\" data-end=\"2586\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"2505\" data-end=\"2586\">This upends traditional <strong data-start=\"2529\" data-end=\"2544\">risk models<\/strong> used by banks, pensions, and governments.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"2587\" data-end=\"2695\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"2589\" data-end=\"2695\">It\u2019s also a <strong data-start=\"2601\" data-end=\"2631\">signal of fiscal fragility<\/strong> \u2014 markets demanding higher compensation for lending to the U.S.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"3240\" data-end=\"3306\">The Big Question: What If the Dollar Loses Its Reserve Status?<\/h3>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"3308\" data-end=\"3448\">Ultimately, the darkest scenario is no longer unthinkable: What happens if the U.S. dollar loses its status as the world\u2019s reserve currency?<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"3450\" data-end=\"3506\">This would unleash a profound economic reset, marked by:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"3508\" data-end=\"3759\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"3508\" data-end=\"3542\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"3510\" data-end=\"3542\">Exploding U.S. borrowing costs<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"3543\" data-end=\"3586\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"3545\" data-end=\"3586\">A collapse in consumer purchasing power<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"3587\" data-end=\"3629\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"3589\" data-end=\"3629\">Global capital flight from U.S. assets<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"3630\" data-end=\"3677\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"3632\" data-end=\"3677\">Severe contraction in both trade and credit<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"3678\" data-end=\"3759\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"3680\" data-end=\"3759\">Domestic political and economic instability unlike anything in modern history<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"3766\" data-end=\"3812\">Conclusion: We Are In the Experiment Now<\/h3>\n<h3>From the album &#8220;<a href=\"\/songwriter\/tag\/deviation\/\">Deviation<\/a>&#8220;<\/h3>\n<h2><a href=\"http:\/\/membrane.com\/global_warming\/\">The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment<\/a><\/h2>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bond__Shaken-Not-Stirred-0.mp3 Bond__Shaken-Not-Stirred-0.mp4 Bond__Shaken-Not-Stirred-I.mp3 Bond__Shaken-Not-Stirred-I.mp4 BBond__Shaken-Not-Stirred-intro.mp3 [Intro] James, Bond&#8230; Shaken (Not stirred) Odds taken Loss incurred [Verse 1] Standard deviation (Situation) Extreme behavior (Needs a savior) [Chorus] James, Bond&#8230; Shaken (Not stirred) Odds taken (Loss incurred) [Bridge] There ain&#8217;t no heaven In our safe haven Fiscal fragility Degraded ability [Verse 2] Chaotic, cracked, and misaligned Should [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[5,9,14],"tags":[4118],"class_list":["post-42948","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chaos-theory","category-daniel","category-lyrics","tag-deviation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42948","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42948"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42948\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42966,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42948\/revisions\/42966"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42948"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42948"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42948"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}