{"id":42984,"date":"2025-04-18T11:49:21","date_gmt":"2025-04-18T11:49:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/idea.membrane.com\/songwriter\/?p=42984"},"modified":"2025-04-18T11:52:09","modified_gmt":"2025-04-18T11:52:09","slug":"heavy-tales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/2025\/04\/18\/heavy-tales\/","title":{"rendered":"Heavy Tales"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Heavy-Tales-0.mp4\">Heavy-Tales-0.mp4<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Heavy-Tales-I.mp3\">Heavy-Tales-I.mp3<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Heavy-Tales-I.mp4\">Heavy-Tales-I.mp4<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XII\/Heavy-Tales-intro.mp3\">Heavy-Tales-intro.mp3<\/a><\/p>\n<p>[Intro]<br \/>\n(Tales of heavy tails)<br \/>\nVolatility<br \/>\nIn predictability<br \/>\nInstability<br \/>\n(It never fails)<br \/>\nHeavy Tales<\/p>\n<p>[Verse 1]<br \/>\nHis bell curve has fallen flat<br \/>\nHard to tell where it&#8217;s at<br \/>\nWhat the hell&#8230; if the shoe fits<br \/>\nLogic&#8217;s ripped to bits<\/p>\n<p>[Chorus]<br \/>\n(Tales of heavy tails)<br \/>\nVolatility<br \/>\nIn predictability<br \/>\nInstability<br \/>\n(It never fails)<\/p>\n<p>[Bridge]<br \/>\nHeavy Tales<br \/>\nInequality<br \/>\n(From see to whining see)<\/p>\n<p>[Verse 2]<br \/>\nHis bell curve&#8230; hammered flat<br \/>\nEnamored no habitat<br \/>\nThe statistical nitwits<br \/>\nShred it all to bits<\/p>\n<p>[Chorus]<br \/>\n(Tales of heavy tails)<br \/>\nVolatility<br \/>\nIn predictability<br \/>\nInstability<br \/>\n(It never fails)<\/p>\n<p>[Bridge]<br \/>\nHeavy Tales<br \/>\nInequality<br \/>\n(From see to whining see)<\/p>\n<p>[Chorus]<br \/>\n(Tales of heavy tails)<br \/>\nVolatility<br \/>\nIn predictability<br \/>\nInstability<br \/>\n(It never fails)<\/p>\n<p>[Outro]<br \/>\nHeavy Tale<br \/>\n(Life set sail)<\/p>\n<p>A SCIENCE NOTE<br \/>\nWhen a <strong data-start=\"7\" data-end=\"34\">bell curve flattens out<\/strong>, it means the data distribution is becoming <strong data-start=\"79\" data-end=\"114\">less peaked and more spread out<\/strong>\u2014a phenomenon known in statistics as an <strong data-start=\"154\" data-end=\"188\">increase in standard deviation<\/strong> or an <strong data-start=\"195\" data-end=\"246\">increase in kurtosis (specifically platykurtic)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"249\" data-end=\"272\">Here\u2019s what it implies:<\/p>\n<p><strong data-start=\"286\" data-end=\"337\">Flatter Bell Curve (Higher Standard Deviation):<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"339\" data-end=\"766\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"339\" data-end=\"427\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"341\" data-end=\"427\"><strong data-start=\"344\" data-end=\"365\">More variability:<\/strong> The values in the data set are more spread out from the mean.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"428\" data-end=\"524\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"430\" data-end=\"524\"><strong data-start=\"433\" data-end=\"457\">Less predictability:<\/strong> There&#8217;s less clustering around the average\u2014data is more scattered.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"525\" data-end=\"623\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"527\" data-end=\"623\"><strong data-start=\"530\" data-end=\"563\">Tails are heavier or broader:<\/strong> More extreme values (outliers) are present, or more likely.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"624\" data-end=\"766\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"626\" data-end=\"766\"><strong data-start=\"629\" data-end=\"652\">In practical terms:<\/strong> It&#8217;s harder to make accurate predictions or draw conclusions because the &#8220;typical&#8221; case isn&#8217;t as typical anymore.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"773\" data-end=\"812\"><strong data-start=\"780\" data-end=\"812\">Real-world economic example:<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"814\" data-end=\"868\">In the economy, a flattening bell curve could suggest:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"869\" data-end=\"1200\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"869\" data-end=\"967\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"871\" data-end=\"967\"><strong data-start=\"871\" data-end=\"901\">Widening income inequality<\/strong> (e.g., more people at the very low and very high ends of income).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"968\" data-end=\"1074\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"970\" data-end=\"1074\"><strong data-start=\"970\" data-end=\"1000\">Unstable financial markets<\/strong>, where asset returns are all over the place rather than tightly centered.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1075\" data-end=\"1200\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1077\" data-end=\"1200\"><strong data-start=\"1077\" data-end=\"1100\">Climate variability<\/strong>, where weather events (like temperature or rainfall) deviate more frequently from historical norms.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>From the album &#8220;<a href=\"\/songwriter\/tag\/deviation\/\">Deviation<\/a>&#8220;<\/h3>\n<h2><a href=\"http:\/\/membrane.com\/global_warming\/\">The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment<\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Heavy-Tales-0.mp4 Heavy-Tales-I.mp3 Heavy-Tales-I.mp4 Heavy-Tales-intro.mp3 [Intro] (Tales of heavy tails) Volatility In predictability Instability (It never fails) Heavy Tales [Verse 1] His bell curve has fallen flat Hard to tell where it&#8217;s at What the hell&#8230; if the shoe fits Logic&#8217;s ripped to bits [Chorus] (Tales of heavy tails) Volatility In predictability Instability (It never fails) [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3,9,14,1],"tags":[163,4118],"class_list":["post-42984","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-4d-music","category-daniel","category-lyrics","category-uncategorized","tag-climate-change","tag-deviation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42984","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42984"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42984\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42997,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42984\/revisions\/42997"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42984"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42984"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42984"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}