{"id":48436,"date":"2025-11-21T18:08:04","date_gmt":"2025-11-21T18:08:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/idea.membrane.com\/songwriter\/?p=48436"},"modified":"2025-11-21T18:08:04","modified_gmt":"2025-11-21T18:08:04","slug":"runaway-feedbacks-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/2025\/11\/21\/runaway-feedbacks-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Runaway (Feedbacks)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XVII\/Runaway-Feedbacks-Best-Of.mp3\">Runaway-Feedbacks-Best-Of.mp3<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XVII\/Runaway-Feedbacks-Best-Of.mp4\">Runaway-Feedbacks-Best-Of.mp5<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XVII\/Runaway-Feedbacks.mp3\">Runaway-Feedbacks.mp3<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XVII\/Runaway-Feedbacks.mp4\">Runaway-Feedbacks.mp4<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/kingarthur.com\/MegaEpix-Enormous\/multimedia\/XVII\/Runaway-Feedbacks-intro.mp3\">Runaway-Feedbacks-intro.mp3<\/a><\/p>\n<p>[Intro]<br \/>\nRunaway (Feedback)<br \/>\nAttack (ack, ack, ack)<\/p>\n<p>[Refrain]<br \/>\nPermafrost Thaw<br \/>\n(Boreal Fire)<br \/>\nJaw dropping awe<br \/>\n(Situation so dire)<\/p>\n<p>[Bridge]<br \/>\nRunaway (Feedback)<br \/>\nAttack (ack, ack, ack)<\/p>\n<p>[Refrain]<br \/>\nIce-Albedo Collapse<br \/>\n(Amazon Dieback)<br \/>\nBest to spark a synapse<br \/>\n(To avoid an attack)<\/p>\n<p>[Bridge]<br \/>\nRunaway (Feedback)<br \/>\nAttack (ack, ack, ack)<br \/>\nRunaway (Feedback)<br \/>\nAttack (ack, ack, ack)<\/p>\n<p>[Outro]<br \/>\nRunaway (Feedback)<br \/>\nAttack (ack, ack, ack)<br \/>\nRunaway (Feedbacks, feedbacks)<br \/>\nRunaway (Feedbacks, feedbacks)<br \/>\nRunaway (Feedbacks, feedbacks)<br \/>\nAttack (ack, ack, ack)<br \/>\nFeeding (Back, back, back!)<\/p>\n<p>ABOUT THE SONG<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Arctic as a Harbinger<\/h2>\n<p>The Arctic is warming far faster than the global average &#8212; ~2-3\u00b0C already, about 3-4 times faster than the planet as a whole. Projections vary:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Low emissions (~1.5-2\u00b0C global):<\/strong> Arctic warms 3-5\u00b0C by 2100.<\/li>\n<li><strong>High emissions (~3-4\u00b0C global):<\/strong> Arctic warms 7-10\u00b0C by 2100, with even higher local spikes.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Worst-case runaway:<\/strong> With reinforcing tipping points (permafrost, albedo collapse, ocean disruption), Arctic warming could exceed <strong>12\u00b0C this century<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Consequences include seasonal ice-free summers by mid-century, permafrost fires releasing CO2 and methane, and destabilization of AMOC, accelerating sea-level rise and global weather extremes.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Global Runaway Feedbacks<\/h2>\n<p>If multiple tipping points reinforce each other, the climate may enter a <strong>self-perpetuating heating cycle<\/strong> beyond human control. The main candidates include:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Ice-Albedo Collapse<\/strong> &#8212; Ice loss locks in warming.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Permafrost Thaw + Boreal Fires<\/strong> &#8212; Gigatons of CO2\/CH4 released.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Amazon &amp; Rainforest Dieback<\/strong> &#8212; Carbon sinks flip to carbon sources.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ocean Circulation Breakdown<\/strong> &#8212; Jet stream chaos, monsoon collapse, food shocks.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Marine Ecosystem Collapse<\/strong> &#8212; Coral death and plankton loss undermine food security.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Soil &amp; Crop Failure Feedbacks<\/strong> &#8212; Drought, famine, and forced migration.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong>Temperature outcomes:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>Linear physics:<\/em> ~3-5\u00b0C by 2100.<\/li>\n<li><em>With feedbacks:<\/em> 6-9\u00b0C this century is plausible.<\/li>\n<li><em>Runaway:<\/em> A &#8220;Hothouse Earth&#8221; trajectory of 10\u00b0C+ over centuries-millennia.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Feedback-Driven Warming Beyond 1.5 \u00b0C<\/h3>\n<p>As global mean temperature exceeds 1.5 \u00b0C and multiple climate tipping points activate, the critical question is not simply <em>how much warmer the planet becomes<\/em>, but <em>how quickly feedbacks amplify that warming<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Scientific consensus:<\/strong> Current models suggest that carbon-cycle feedbacks &#8212; permafrost thaw, weakening ocean and land sinks, methane release from wetlands, and fire-driven emissions &#8212; could add <strong>~0.2-1.0 \u00b0C<\/strong> of warming by 2100 on top of direct human emissions. This range reflects assumptions that:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Warming is held close to ~2 \u00b0C by policy.<\/li>\n<li>Tipping points unfold slowly and largely independently.<\/li>\n<li>Ecosystems and oceans continue absorbing a significant share of emissions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Under a <strong>high-emissions trajectory<\/strong>, with multiple tipping elements engaged, the upper end of this estimate (or beyond) becomes more plausible.<\/p>\n<p><strong>My concern:<\/strong> These consensus estimates are already lagging reality. Observations suggest that at least <strong>nine major tipping points<\/strong> are not only triggered but are now <em>reinforcing each other<\/em>. Instead of unfolding over centuries or millennia, the pace is measured in years or decades. Models have struggled to keep up with this rapid nonlinearity.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cascading Feedbacks in Real Time<\/h3>\n<p>Regardless of the rise in global mean temperature, <strong>cascading feedbacks are already reshaping weather extremes<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>In just ten days during <strong>July 2025<\/strong>, the U.S. experienced:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Hundreds of flash floods<\/strong> nationwide, with hundreds of fatalities and billions in damages.<\/li>\n<li>At least <strong>five &#8220;1-in-1,000-year&#8221; rainfall events<\/strong> (Texas, New Mexico, North Carolina, Florida, Illinois).<\/li>\n<li>Multiple &#8220;500-year floods&#8221; across Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey, Maryland, Virginia, and Iowa as extreme rainfall overwhelmed infrastructure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>These events illustrate how tipping feedbacks manifest in human terms &#8212; not only as gradual warming, but as <strong>sudden escalations in climate volatility and infrastructure failure<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>*<\/strong> Our <a href=\"http:\/\/membrane.com\/global_warming\/Chaos-Theory-and-Climate-Change.html\"><b>probabilistic, ensemble-based climate model<\/b><\/a> \u2014 which incorporates complex socio-economic and ecological feedback loops within a dynamic, nonlinear system \u2014 projects that <a href=\"http:\/\/membrane.com\/global_warming\/Systemic-Collapse.html\"><b>global temperatures are becoming unsustainable this century<\/b><\/a>. This far exceeds earlier estimates of a 4\u00b0C rise over the next thousand years, highlighting a dramatic acceleration in global warming. We are now entering <b>a phase of compound, cascading collapse<\/b>, where climate, ecological, and societal systems destabilize through interlinked, self-reinforcing feedback loops &#8212; the domino effect.<\/p>\n<h3 align=\"center\"><a href=\"http:\/\/membrane.com\/global_warming\/Tipping-Points.html\">Tipping points<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/membrane.com\/global_warming\/notes\/feedback-loops.html\">feedback loops<\/a> drive the <a href=\"http:\/\/membrane.com\/global_warming\/Climate-Change-Acceleration-Rate.html\">acceleration of climate change<\/a>. When one tipping point is toppled and triggers others, the cascading collapse is known as the <em><a href=\"http:\/\/membrane.com\/global_warming\/Domino-Effect-Tipping-Points-Toppled.html\">Domino Effect<\/a><\/em>.<\/h3>\n<p><strong>From the album &#8220;<a href=\"\/songwriter\/tag\/lulu\/\">Lulu<\/a>&#8220;<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Runaway-Feedbacks-Best-Of.mp3 Runaway-Feedbacks-Best-Of.mp5 Runaway-Feedbacks.mp3 Runaway-Feedbacks.mp4 Runaway-Feedbacks-intro.mp3 [Intro] Runaway (Feedback) Attack (ack, ack, ack) [Refrain] Permafrost Thaw (Boreal Fire) Jaw dropping awe (Situation so dire) [Bridge] Runaway (Feedback) Attack (ack, ack, ack) [Refrain] Ice-Albedo Collapse (Amazon Dieback) Best to spark a synapse (To avoid an attack) [Bridge] Runaway (Feedback) Attack (ack, ack, ack) Runaway (Feedback) Attack (ack, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3,9,14],"tags":[163,4183],"class_list":["post-48436","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-4d-music","category-daniel","category-lyrics","tag-climate-change","tag-lulu"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48436","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48436"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48436\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48445,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48436\/revisions\/48445"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48436"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48436"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kingarthur.com\/songwriter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48436"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}