Tag: climate change

bookmark_borderThe Thickness

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[Intro]
The thickness of the air
Is getting hard to bear
At any rate
Can you endure or tolerate

[Verse 1]
For every degree
In the mercury
Seven percent more humidity

[Chorus]
The thickness of the air
Is getting hard to bear (are you aware?)
At any rate
Can you endure (any more)
Or tolerate (even perspirate)

[Bridge]
Do you know
Will the sweat flow

[Verse 2]
Watch the temperature soar
Can you endure
The water vapor
Man’s great caper

[Chorus]
The thickness of the air
Is getting hard to bear (are you aware?)
At any rate
Can you endure (any more)
Or tolerate (even perspirate)

[Bridge]
Do you know
Will the sweat flow
Do you know
Will the heat grow
Do you know
How to say no
(no, no, no)

[Chorus]
The thickness of the air
Is getting hard to bear (are you aware?)
At any rate
Can you endure (any more)
Or tolerate (even perspirate)

[Outro[
Do you know
How to say no
(no, no, no)

A SCIENCE NOTE
The greatest health risk from climate change to those alive today is the increased moisture content in the air (relative humidity) combined with the increased temperatures. Climate change and rising temperatures significantly increase the humidity in the atmosphere due to the relationship between temperature and the air’s capacity to hold moisture. The Clausius-Clapeyron equation describes this relationship, indicating that for every 1C (1.8F) increase in temperature, the air can hold about 7% more water vapor.

A Wet-bulb measures the temperature read by a thermometer covered in a wet cloth. As water evaporates from the cloth, evaporation cools the thermometer. This mirrors how the human body cools itself with sweat. The higher the heat and humidity (heat index), the harder it is for sweat to evaporate. The study Adaptability Limit to Climate Change Due to Heat Stress found that a wet-bulb temperature of 35C (95F) at 100% humidity, or 115F at 50% humidity, would be the upper limit of safety, beyond which the human body can no longer cool itself by evaporating sweat from the surface of the body to maintain a stable body core temperature.

When the “wet bulb” temperature reaches a temperature too hot for humans to sweat, it is referred to as the “wet-bulb temperature threshold” or simply the “wet-bulb limit.” This limit represents the maximum temperature at which evaporation from a wet surface, such as the skin, can effectively cool the human body through sweating. Beyond this threshold, the body’s ability to regulate its internal temperature becomes severely compromised, posing a significant risk to human health and well-being.

When the temperature exceeds the wet-bulb temperature threshold, the human body faces significant risks of heat-related illnesses and potentially fatal heatstroke. Under such conditions, the body’s ability to cool itself through perspiration is severely compromised, leading to a rapid rise in core body temperature. As a result, individuals may experience symptoms such as dizziness, fatigue, rapid heartbeat, nausea, and confusion. Without intervention, heat exhaustion can progress to heatstroke, a life-threatening condition characterized by a core body temperature above 40°C (104℉), accompanied by neurological symptoms such as seizures, delirium, and loss of consciousness. Heatstroke requires immediate medical attention and can be fatal if left untreated.

Exposure to temperatures exceeding the wet-bulb threshold poses a grave risk to human health and highlights the urgent need for effective measures to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change, which can exacerbate extreme heat events and increase the frequency of conditions exceeding this critical threshold.

* Our climate model uses chaos theory in an attempt to adequately account for humans and forecasts a global average temperature increase of 9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Everybody has the responsibility not to pollute. There are plenty of things you can do to help save the planet. Stop using fossil fuels. Consume less. Love more. Here is a list of additional actions you can take.

From the album “She’s Gonna Give!” by Daniel

MegaEpix Enormous

A song about The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderChristmas in July

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[Intro]
Did you know
We had record snow
Oh, my
In July

[Verse 1]
Do you know what I mean
When I say extreme
Thermal energy
Unveiled mystery

[Bridge]
Oh, no! Snow!
Oh, my, my
Christmas in July

[Chorus]
I’m dreaming of a white summer
Extreme weather newcomer
The heat is on
What we brought upon

[Verse 2]
When I say extreme
This is what I mean
Thermal energy
Increased intensity

[Bridge]
Oh, no! Snow!
Oh, my, my
Christmas in July

[Chorus]
I’m dreaming of a white summer
Extreme weather newcomer
The heat is on
What we brought upon

[Bridge]
Oh, no! Snow!
Oh, my, my
Christmas in July

[Outro]
Did you know
We had record snow
Oh, my
In July

A SCIENCE NOTE
On July 14, 2024, Philadelphia set an unusual weather record for the month of July by experiencing measurable snowfall. This rare event occurred during the third heat wave of the summer when a severe thunderstorm passed over Philadelphia International Airport. The storm brought small granular hail, which accumulated enough to be recorded as snowfall. This surprising weather phenomenon highlights the extreme and unpredictable nature of weather patterns, even during typically hot summer months. The occurrence of hail during a heat wave underscores the complexities of atmospheric conditions and the potential for unexpected weather events.

Global warming has inflicted irreversible damage on our environment, a consensus echoed by nearly all scientists. Indeed, climate change poses a profound challenge. Our planet is witnessing conditions that increasingly jeopardize human habitation. The critical question now is whether we can adapt swiftly enough. “We are not saying that the Earth’s temperature is just going to rise. In general, as energy is added to a system, the fluctuations in the system increase. So, we expect more storms, more droughts, more wildfires, more floods, more fluctuations of all kinds. What we are saying is that weather conditions will become more volatile (Extreme Weather Events) due to the impact of humans,” said Mukherjee and Brouse.

Human-induced climate change is a dynamic component of an intricate and unordered system, as per chaos theory. This implies that global warming is accelerating exponentially in a complex manner. Over the period from 1992 to 2023, we have presented compelling evidence, proposed remedies to mitigate climate change, and amassed valuable information through the engagement of millions with this climate model. Your participation has been invaluable. The incontrovertible data underscores that human-induced climate change is rapidly deteriorating our habitat.

This climate model/experiment employs chaos theory to comprehensively consider human impacts, projecting a potential global average temperature increase of 9°C above pre-industrial levels. Global warming results from elevated thermal energy within the climate system, which includes various interconnected subsystems. Chaos theory highlights the intricate and nonlinear nature of these dynamic systems. Previous climate models inadequately incorporated “social-ecological systems,” as human involvement was not a significant factor in past climate changes.

From the album “Christmas in July” by the King Arthur Holiday Band

MegaEpix Enormous

A song about The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderLess Steep Sheep

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The people’s people
Humane humanity
A man
Amen
To less steep sheep

[Verse 1]
Oh, no (know)
Gonna do it again,
My friend
Oh, woe (Whoa woe, oh, oh)

[Bridge]
A knew steeple
For the people
A less steep
People

[Chorus]
And all the universe
Joins in the verse
Everyone, (all of us)
Joins in the chorus
[Bridge]
The core us

Less steep sheep

[Verse 2]
To know (to no)
Not do it again,
My friend
Oh, woe (Whoa woe, oh, oh)

[Bridge]
A knew steeple
For the people
A less steep
People

[Chorus]
And all the universe
Joins in the verse
Everyone, (all of us)
Joins in the chorus
[Bridge]
The core us

[Outro]
A knew steeple
For the people
Less steep sheep

From the album “She’s Gonna Give!” by Daniel

MegaEpix Enormous

A song about The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderNick of Time

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[Intro]
Talk about the nick of time
I am
Quick… nick
Of time

]Verse 1]
Don’t you know…
Where does the time go?
Do you care
Are you even aware?

[Chorus]
A sliver
Of being a liver
A slice
Of the good life
(Oh, so nice)

[Bridge]
In the nick of time
Saving the day
With reason and rhyme
Love today

]Verse 2]
In this brief period
On the face of the Earth
Living the myriad
Of a beautiful birth

[Chorus]
A sliver
Of being a liver
A slice
Of the good life
(Oh, so nice)

[Bridge]
In the nick of time
Saving the day
With reason and rhyme
Love today

[Chorus]
A sliver
Of being a liver
A slice
Of the good life
(Oh, so nice)

[Outro]
In the nick of time
Saving the day
With reason and rhyme
Loving the way

A SCIENCE NOTE
Our climate model uses chaos theory in an attempt to adequately account for humans and forecasts a global average temperature increase of 9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Everybody has the responsibility not to pollute. There are plenty of things you can do to help save the planet. Stop using fossil fuels. Consume less. Love more. Here is a list of additional actions you can take.

Convincing a climate change denier of the reality and urgency of the climate crisis can be challenging, but a strategic approach using clear, relatable, and credible information can be effective.

From the album “She’s Gonna Give!” by Daniel

MegaEpix Enormous

A song about The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderSure Thing

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[Intro]
How to begin?
Benjamin Franklin
Nothing is certain except death and tax
Check your facts

[Verse 1]
An object in motion
Stays in motion
The rising ocean
More than a notion

[Chorus]
A sure thing is happening
A kind of change you can’t rearrange
With certainty grappling
This kind of change is too strange

[Bridge]
Just to be clear…
“I woke up in morning and I got myself a beer
The future’s uncertain and The End is always near”

[Verse 2]
An object at rest
Will remain at rest
Do you think it best
Clean what we’ve messed?

[Chorus]
A sure thing is happening
A kind of change you can’t rearrange
With certainty grappling
This kind of change is too strange

[Bridge]
Just to be clear…
“I woke up in morning and I got myself a beer
The future’s uncertain and The End is always near”

[Chorus]
A sure thing is happening
A kind of change you can’t rearrange
With certainty grappling
This kind of change is too strange

[Outro]
Just to be clear…
“I woke up in morning and I got myself a beer
The future’s uncertain and The End is always near”

From the album “She’s Gonna Give!” by Daniel

MegaEpix Enormous

A song about The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderTornado Warning

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[Intro]
Is it all clear here?

[Verse 1]
Hear them holler
“Into the storm cellar”
Hear the siren
It’s wailin’ agin’

[Bridge]
They say…
A tornado’s on the way

[Chorus]
It’s coming
(It’s coming)
It’s coming this way
It’s coming
(It’s coming)
Best get (out of harm’s way)

[Verse 2]
Bet your bottom dollar
I can hear ’em holler
“Into the storm cellar”
Gather Ma and Old Yeller

[Bridge]
They say…
A tornado’s on the way

[Chorus]
It’s coming
(It’s coming)
It’s coming this way
It’s coming
(It’s coming)
Best get (out of harm’s way)

[Chorus]
It’s coming
(It’s coming)
It’s coming this way

[Outro]
It’s coming
(It’s coming)
Best get (out of harm’s way)

From the album “How to Serve Man” by The Beatless Sense Mongers

MegaEpix Enormous

A song about The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderHave You Tried?

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[Intro]
Have you tried going outside?
(There’s no place to hide)

[Verse 1]
Have you tried opening the door?
I can’t take it any more
Try stepping outside…
It’ll tan your hide

[Bridge]
Have you tried going outside?
(There’s no place to hide)

[Chorus]
Oh, I tried
(And, I tried)
Too dry or would’ve cried
Oh, I tried
(And, I tried)
Tried and nearly died

[Verse 2]
Have you tried opening the window?
Just no (no, no, no)
Even under shadow
It’s woe (woe, woe, woe)

[Bridge]
Have you tried going outside?
(There’s no place to hide)

[Chorus]
Oh, I tried
(And, I tried)
Too dry or would’ve cried
Oh, I tried
(And, I tried)
Tried and nearly died

[Bridge]
Have you tried going outside?
(There’s no place to hide)

[Outro]
Have you tried going outside?
(There’s no place to hide)

From the album “How to Serve Man” by The Beatless Sense Mongers

MegaEpix Enormous

A song about The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderOuch!

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[Intro]
Ouch!
Don’t touch
Ouch!
A touch to much

[Verse 1]
The air’s too thick too breathe
How can I relieve
The tangled web we weave
Is hard to believe

[Chorus]
The chaos in the hot sauce
Too severe to swallow
Gave common sense a toss
Now, we weep and wallow

[Bridge]
Ouch!
Don’t touch
Ouch!
A touch to much

[Verse 2]
The water’s too warm to relieve
Can’t win with a swim
The tangled web we weave
Is hard to believe

[Chorus]
The chaos in the hot sauce
Too severe to swallow
Gave common sense a toss
Now, we weep and wallow

[Bridge]
Ouch!
Don’t touch
Ouch!
A touch to much

[Chorus]
The chaos in the hot sauce
Too severe to swallow
Gave common sense a toss
Now, we weep and wallow

[Bridge]
Ouch!
Don’t touch
Ouch!
A touch to much

[Outro]
Ouch!
Don’t touch
Ouch!
A touch to much

A SCIENCE NOTE
How does chaos theory explain thermal energy redistributed throughout the world?

  1. Nonlinear Dynamics:
    • Chaos theory emphasizes the nonlinear dynamics of complex systems, meaning that small changes in initial conditions can lead to disproportionately large and unpredictable outcomes. In the context of climate, this nonlinearity is evident in how the redistribution of thermal energy is influenced by factors like ocean currents and atmospheric circulation, which can exhibit chaotic behavior.
  2. Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions:
    • Chaos theory also highlights the concept of sensitive dependence on initial conditions, commonly known as the butterfly effect. In climate systems, small variations in initial conditions, such as temperature or atmospheric pressure, can lead to significant changes in the distribution of thermal energy over time.
  3. Complex Feedback Loops:
    • Climate systems involve intricate feedback loops, where changes in one component can influence others. These feedback loops contribute to the complexity and unpredictability of thermal energy redistribution. Chaos theory helps us understand how these feedback mechanisms can amplify or dampen the effects of perturbations in the system.
  4. Emergent Patterns:
    • Chaos theory recognizes the emergence of complex patterns from seemingly chaotic systems. In climate science, emergent patterns may include large-scale phenomena like El Niño or the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which play roles in redistributing thermal energy on a global scale.
  5. Climate Variability and Change:
    • Chaos theory is particularly relevant in studying climate variability and change. While long-term trends such as global warming are discernible, the inherent chaos in the climate system introduces variability and uncertainty, making it challenging to precisely predict how thermal energy will be redistributed over shorter timescales.
  6. Atmospheric Rivers and Droughts:
    • Atmospheric rivers are concentrated bands of moisture in the atmosphere, and their behavior is influenced by various atmospheric factors. Chaos theory comes into play when trying to predict the exact paths and intensities of atmospheric rivers, especially as small changes in initial conditions can lead to vastly different outcomes over time. Droughts result from complex interactions between atmospheric conditions, precipitation patterns, land use, and water management. Chaos theory highlights the sensitivity of drought conditions to initial conditions and the potential for nonlinear responses, making it difficult to precisely predict the onset, duration, and severity of drought events.

From the album “How to Serve Man” by The Beatless Sense Mongers

MegaEpix Enormous

A song about The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderFor What It’s Worth (My Advice)

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[Intro]
My advice
For what it’s worth
Think twice
Of your birth on Earth

[Verse 1]
My advice
In this paradise
For what it’s worth
Think twice

[Bridge]
If you’re going to roll
(It will take it’s toll)

[Chorus]
I prefer to ride
(On top of the tide)
On top of the tide
(A smoother ride)
More of a glide

[Verse 2]
To be rolled by waves
Why wrestle the sea
The way physics behaves
Will help you see

[Bridge]
If you’re going to roll
(It will take it’s toll)
On top of the tide

[Chorus]
I prefer to ride
(On top of the tide)
On top of the tide
(A smoother ride)
More of a glide

[Bridge]
If you’re going to roll
(It will take it’s toll)
On top of the tide

[Chorus]
I prefer to ride
(On top of the tide)
On top of the tide

[Outro]
On top of the tide
(A smoother ride)
More of a glide
On top of the tide

From the album “How to Serve Man” by The Beatless Sense Mongers

MegaEpix Enormous

A song about The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderLook on the Bright Side

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[Intro]
Possibilities both far and wide
Why not take a look on the bright side?

[Verse 1]
If you’re dazed
And/or are confused
You don’t know
What to do

[Bridge]
You can count on love
To shine for you
You can count on love
To shine on you

[Chorus]
Shedding light on insight (in sight)
Wish with all your might (incite)
To get it right (get it right)
All right (alright!)

[Verse 2]
If you’re blue
Don’t know what to do
Come unglued
Ya, that too

[Bridge]
You can count on love
To shine for you
You can count on love
To shine on you

[Chorus]
Shedding light on insight (in sight)
Wish with all your might (incite)
To get it right (get it right)
All right (alright!)

[Bridge]
You can count on love
To shine for you
You can count on love
To shine on you

[Chorus]
Shedding light on insight (in sight)
Wish with all your might (incite)

[Outro]
To get it right (get it right)
All right (alright!)

A SCIENCE NOTE
The environmental changes and uncertainties associated with climate change can contribute to mental health issues, including anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Almost all survivors of climate-related disasters suffer from mental distress and experience PTSD. Of those who have not experienced climate disasters, over two-thirds of U.S. adults (68%) report having climate change anxiety.

From the album “How to Serve Man” by The Beatless Sense Mongers

MegaEpix Enormous

A song about The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderWhen I Think About When

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[Intro]
When I think about when
It gets me wondering
What about then?
Then again….

[Verse 1]
How long is this going to last
… before becoming the past
The sands of time pass
Through our grasp

[Chorus]
When I think about when
It gets me wondering
What about then?
Then again….

[Bridge]
Do you find it troubling
The doubling time is doubling
Watching our destruction’s pace
Win the race

[Verse 2]
Do we have much time to waste
Wasted pace, wasted race
How can we procrastinate
Leaving children to our fate

[Chorus]
When I think about when
It gets me wondering
What about then?
Then again….

[Bridge]
Do you find it troubling
The doubling time is doubling
Watching our destruction’s pace
Win the race

[Chorus]
When I think about when
It gets me wondering
What about then?
Then again….

[Outro]
Do you find it troubling
The doubling time is doubling
Watching our destruction’s pace
Win the race

A SCIENCE NOTE
Doubling time refers to the duration needed for a quantity to double in size, a characteristic of exponential growth. By 2020, substantial data revealed that the doubling time for certain anthropogenic climate impacts had decreased significantly, shifting from 100 years to merely 10 years. For instance, the rate of sea level rise has surged from approximately 1.5 millimeters per year to over 3 millimeters. This trend suggests that the doubling period is likely to further contract, heightening the prospect of sea levels ascending at a rate of one foot per year by 2050.

If the doubling time remains at 10 years, we could see extreme events 100% more intense and/or longer in duration, as well as, 14 times more likely to occur. As mentioned above, we expect the doubling time to be reduced. If the doubling time is 5 years, in ten years we could see 200% more intense and longer extreme weather events being 28 times more likely to occur.

2024 Update
Global average sea level rose by about 0.3 inches (0.76 centimeters) from 2022 to 2023, according to a NASA-led analysis. When we authored this paper in 2023, we could not have foreseen the swift acceleration of this trend. Initially projected to double over a span of 100 years, the rate of sea level rise dramatically escalated, shortening the doubling period to a mere 10 years by 2020. Shockingly, recent observations suggest that this doubling period has further compressed to just 2 years. It is imperative to acknowledge and address this concerning trend, hoping it is not a foreboding indication of a new norm but rather an anomaly.

From: Climate Change: Rate of Acceleration Brouse and Mukherjee (2023-2024)

From the album “How to Serve Man” by The Beatless Sense Mongers

MegaEpix Enormous

A song about The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderTemper vs. Temperature

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[Intro]
3, 2, 1
Oh, no
(Zero!)

[Verse 1]
My temper’s going to blow
(Oh, don’t you know)
(I’ve) had enough
Of this stuff

[Bridge]
Your temperature, do ya know
(Admit it)
It gets rough
(It gets tough)

[Chorus]
Can’t stand the heat
(Time to get out of the kitchen)
The heat’s got me beat
(I’m sure that you know)
Baa, baa, baa, baa….
[Bridge]
Itchin’
Did I hear you peep?
Perhaps the black sheep
Itchin’
(Baa, baa, baa)
Oh, oh, oh, oh

3, 2, 1
Oh, no
(Zero!)

[Verse 2]
Your temper’s going to blow
(Oh, don’t we know)
(We’ve) had enough (no bluff)
Of this stuff (gettin’ rough)
Time to get going
(With knowing)

[Bridge]
Your temperature, do ya know
(Admit it)
It gets rough
(It gets tough)

[Chorus]
Can’t stand the heat
(Time to get out of the kitchen)
The heat’s got me beat
(I’m sure that you know)
Baa, baa, baa, baa….
[Bridge]
Itchin’
Did I hear you peep?
Are you the black sheep?
Itchin’
(Baa, baa, baa)
Oh, oh, oh, oh

[Chorus]
Can’t stand the heat
(Time to get out of the kitchen)
The heat’s got me beat
(I’m sure that you know)
Baa, baa, baa, baa….
[Outro]
Did I hear you peep?
You’re the black sheep
Itchin’
(Baa, baa, baa)
Oh, oh, oh, oh
Itchin’
(Baa, baa, baa)

From the album “How to Serve Man” by The Beatless Sense Mongers

MegaEpix Enormous

A song about The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderItsy Bitsy Hiccup

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[Intro]
Can you back up a little?
Backup the back up

[Verse 1]
Maybe it’s just an itsy bitsy
Back up hiccup
A tennie weenie
Hiccup in the backup
(Back up hiccup)

[Bridge]
Concede we won’t recede
Our speed
(nor greed)
We’d rather bleed!

[Chorus]
Too busy today
Too busy to pay
(Attention!)
Busy paving the way
To doomsday
(Fatal attraction)
[Bridge]
Sole satisfaction
(Soul satisfaction)

[Verse 2]
Perhaps it’s only an itsy bitsy
Back up hiccup
‘lil glitch n’ twist…
Hiccup in the backup
(Back up hiccup)

[Bridge]
Concede we won’t recede
Our speed
(nor greed)
We’d rather bleed!

[Chorus]
Too busy today
Too busy to pay
(Attention!)
Busy paving the way
To doomsday
(Fatal attraction)
[Bridge]
Sole satisfaction
(Soul satisfaction)

[Outro]
Sole satisfaction
(Soul satisfaction)
Sole satisfaction
(Soul satisfaction)

A SCIENCE UPDATE
As of today, there is no known way to fully reverse human-induced climate change. While there are methods to mitigate its effects, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions, transitioning to renewable energy, and enhancing carbon capture technologies, these measures cannot completely undo the damage that has already been done. Additionally, there is no comprehensive backup plan in place to address the worst-case scenarios of climate change. This means that global efforts are primarily focused on prevention and adaptation rather than reversal. The lack of a backup plan highlights the urgency of immediate and sustained action to mitigate further impacts and protect our planet’s future.

From the album “How to Serve Man” by The Beatless Sense Mongers

MegaEpix Enormous

A song about The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderStarlight, Star Bright

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[Intro]
Starlight, star bright.
First star I see tonight.
Wish I may, wish I might.
Have the wish I wish, tonight —
Shine on people of the Earth
(shine on and on)

[Verse 1]
As you look out through the stars
Do you wonder where we are
… in time and space

[Chorus]
Shine on people of the Earth
(shine on and on)
Give the meaning a new birth
(shine on and on)
Shine on everyone

[Bridge]
The human race
Set the pace
That we accelerate
Called it fate

Non-ceasing
(Increasing)
Everyday
(Faster, faster)
In disaster’s way

[Verse 2]
As you look out through the stars
Do you wonder where we are
… in time and space

[Chorus]
Shine on people of the Earth
(shine on and on)
Give the meaning a new birth
(shine on and on)
Shine on everyone

[Bridge]
The human race
Set the pace
That we accelerate
Called it fate

Non-ceasing
(Increasing)
Everyday
(Faster, faster)
In disaster’s way

[Outro]
Starlight, star bright.
First star I see tonight.
Shine on people of the Earth
(shine on and on)

A SCIENCE NOTE
How fast are humans causing the climate to change? When we started our experiments in the 1990’s, we thought the time scale was in millenniums. If climate change were happening on a linear basis, we would have been correct; however, by the late 90’s we were convinced climate change was non-linear.

Doubling time refers to the duration needed for a quantity to double in size, a characteristic of exponential growth. By 2020, substantial data revealed that the doubling time for certain anthropogenic climate impacts had decreased significantly, shifting from 100 years to merely 10 years. For instance, the rate of sea level rise has surged from approximately 1.5 millimeters per year to over 3 millimeters. This trend suggests that the doubling period is likely to further contract, heightening the prospect of sea levels ascending at a rate of one foot per year by 2050.

T_{d}=t \frac{\ln (2)}{\ln \left(1+\frac{r}{100}\right)}
T_{d}=t \frac{\ln (2)}{\ln \left(1+\frac{r}{100}\right)}

T_{d} = doubling time
t = time
{r} = growth rate

Though the rate of change in climate disasters’ intensity, duration, and likelihood vary according to the type of extreme weather, a “rule-of-thumb” can be derived from the Canada wildfires of 2023. The World Weather Attribution Organization found, “Climate change made the cumulative severity of Quebec’s 2023 fire season to the end of July around 50% more intense, and seasons of this severity at least seven times more likely to occur.”

50% more intense
7 x more likely

These numbers may be similar in other catastrophes like atmospheric rivers, hurricanes, heat waves, droughts, floods, tornadoes, and sea level rise.

If the doubling time remains at 10 years, we could see extreme events 100% more intense and/or longer in duration, as well as, 14 times more likely to occur. As mentioned above, we expect the doubling time to be reduced. If the doubling time is 5 years, in ten years we could see 200% more intense and longer extreme weather events being 28 times more likely to occur.

2024 Update
Global average sea level rose by about 0.3 inches (0.76 centimeters) from 2022 to 2023, according to a NASA-led analysis. When we authored this paper in 2023, we could not have foreseen the swift acceleration of this trend. Initially projected to double over a span of 100 years, the rate of sea level rise dramatically escalated, shortening the doubling period to a mere 10 years by 2020. Shockingly, recent observations suggest that this doubling period has further compressed to just 2 years. It is imperative to acknowledge and address this concerning trend, hoping it is not a foreboding indication of a new norm but rather an anomaly.

From the album “How to Serve Man” by The Beatless Sense Mongers

MegaEpix Enormous

A song about The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderDancing on the Abyss

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[intro]
Is it a big deal
Are you for real

[Verse 1]
Earthshaking
Minds baking
Brain’s fried
Skin’s dried

[Bridge]
Is it a big deal
Are you for real

[Chorus]
Doesn’t get any bigger than this
(No know bigger than this)
In a world gone mad with fire and tricks
We’re just dancing on the abyss
[Bridge]
(Ahhh biss)

[Verse 2]
Earth-shattering
Body parts scattering
Brain-dead
Reaper said….

[Bridge]
Is it a big deal
Are you for real

[Chorus]
Doesn’t get any bigger than this
(No know bigger than this)
In a world gone mad with fire and tricks
We’re just dancing on the abyss
[Bridge]
(Ahhh biss)

Is it a big deal
Feel how to reel
Gettin’ blown away
Today

[Outro]
Is it a big deal
Are you for real
Are you for real

From the album “How to Serve Man” by The Beatless Sense Mongers

MegaEpix Enormous

A song about The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment