Tag: climate change

• Pittsburgh May.mp3
• Pittsburgh May.mp4

Pittsburgh May?
Pittsburgh will…
Pittsburgh did in May

[Verse 1]
Converged on three rivers
Primate change delivers
Mister, another twister
Oh, no, tornado

[Chorus]
Extreme weather events
Prosperity prevents
Our lease on peace
Fossil fools, cease!

[Instrumental, Saxophone Solo, Bass]

[Verse 2]
Fourteen twisters in May
Bring multiples of dismay
And it ain’t over yet
We responsible, you bet

[Chorus]
Extreme weather events
Prosperity prevents
Our lease on peace
Fossil fools, cease!

[Instrumental, Guitar Solo, Bass]

[Bridge]
More moisture
Altered jet streams
And dreams
The facts,
Sifting storm tracks
Come and see
Tornado Alley

[Chorus]
Extreme weather events
Prosperity prevents
Our lease on peace
Fossil fools, cease!

[Outro]
Pittsburgh May?
Pittsburgh will…
Pittsburgh did in May

A SCIENCE NOTE
(May 2024)
“14 tornadoes become most on record in May for NWS Pittsburgh, surpassing 1985 tornado outbreak”
The recent tornadoes in or near western Pennsylvania are now the most on record by the National Weather Service Pittsburgh in May.

Climate change’s impact on tornadoes in the Pittsburgh area, and more broadly across the northeastern United States, involves complex and evolving dynamics. While the relationship between climate change and tornado activity is still an area of active research, there are some observed and projected trends that can be discussed:

1. Changes in Tornado Frequency and Intensity:

• Shifts in Tornado Alley: Traditionally, “Tornado Alley” refers to the central part of the United States, particularly in states like Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. However, recent studies suggest that the frequency of tornadoes may be increasing in the southeastern and northeastern United States, including areas like Pittsburgh.
• Intensity: Some research indicates that while the overall number of tornadoes might not significantly increase, the intensity of tornadoes could be affected by changing atmospheric conditions. Increased atmospheric instability and moisture levels due to warming temperatures can contribute to more severe weather events.

2. Environmental Factors Influencing Tornadoes:

• Increased Moisture: Warmer temperatures lead to more moisture in the atmosphere. Increased humidity can contribute to the formation of severe thunderstorms, which are a prerequisite for tornadoes.
• Jet Stream Changes: Climate change can alter the patterns and strength of the jet stream. Changes in the jet stream can influence the frequency and paths of storm systems, potentially impacting tornado activity in the Pittsburgh area.
• Storm Tracks: There is evidence that the tracks of storms are shifting, possibly due to changes in the climate system. This can bring severe weather, including tornadoes, to areas that were previously less affected.

3. Local Observations and Trends:

• Historical Data: Analysis of historical tornado data in Pennsylvania and surrounding states shows variability in tornado occurrences. Some years have seen higher-than-average tornado activity, while others have been quieter.
• Recent Events: Pittsburgh and surrounding areas have experienced tornadoes in recent years, with some events causing significant damage. These occurrences, coupled with anecdotal reports of more severe thunderstorms, suggest a potential shift in local weather patterns.

4. Preparedness and Mitigation:

• Improved Forecasting: Advances in meteorological science and technology have improved the ability to predict and warn about tornadoes. Enhanced radar systems, better models, and more sophisticated warning systems help mitigate the impacts of tornadoes.
• Community Preparedness: Increased awareness and preparedness efforts are essential in regions experiencing changing weather patterns. Communities in and around Pittsburgh can benefit from updated building codes, better emergency response plans, and public education on tornado safety.

5. Research and Uncertainty:

• Ongoing Studies: The exact link between climate change and tornado activity remains an active area of research. Scientists continue to study how global warming influences the atmospheric conditions that lead to tornado formation.
• Uncertainty: While trends and patterns are emerging, there is still significant uncertainty regarding long-term predictions. Climate models are improving, but tornadoes are influenced by a multitude of factors, making precise forecasts challenging.

In summary, while the direct impact of climate change on tornadoes in the Pittsburgh area is still being studied, there are indications that changing atmospheric conditions could influence the frequency, intensity, and distribution of tornadoes. Increased moisture, altered jet streams, and shifting storm tracks are some of the factors that may contribute to more severe weather events, including tornadoes, in the region. Improved forecasting and community preparedness are crucial to mitigating the risks associated with these changes.

 

CLIMATE CHANGE

Global warming has inflicted irreversible damage on our environment, a consensus echoed by nearly all scientists. Indeed, climate change poses a profound challenge. Our planet is witnessing conditions that increasingly jeopardize human habitation. The critical question now is whether we can adapt swiftly enough. “We are not saying that the Earth’s temperature is just going to rise. In general, as energy is added to a system, the fluctuations in the system increase. So, we expect more storms, more droughts, more wildfires, more floods, more fluctuations of all kinds. What we are saying is that weather conditions will become more volatile (Extreme Weather Events) due to the impact of humans,” said Mukherjee and Brouse.

Human-induced climate change is a dynamic component of an intricate and unordered system, as per chaos theory. This implies that global warming is accelerating exponentially in a complex manner. Over the period from 1992 to 2023, we have presented compelling evidence, proposed remedies to mitigate climate change, and amassed valuable information through the engagement of millions with this climate model. Your participation has been invaluable. The incontrovertible data underscores that human-induced climate change is rapidly deteriorating our habitat.

This climate model / experiment employs chaos theory to comprehensively consider human impacts and projects a potential global average temperature increase of 9℃ above pre-industrial levels. Global warming is a consequence of elevated thermal energy in the climate system, which comprises various subsystems. Chaos theory underscores the intricate and nonlinear nature of dynamic systems. Human well-being is compromised above a 1.5-degree temperature rise, rendering much of the Earth uninhabitable. A 9-degree Celsius increase would bring the Earth close to a wet-bulb temperature incapable of sustaining human life.

What Can I Do? There are numerous actions you can take to contribute to saving the planet. Each person bears the responsibility to minimize pollution, discontinue the use of fossil fuels, reduce consumption, and foster a culture of love and care. The Butterfly Effect illustrates that a small change in one area can lead to significant alterations in conditions anywhere on the globe. Hence, the frequently heard statement that a fluttering butterfly in China can cause a hurricane in the Atlantic. Be a butterfly and affect the world.

From the album “Right Now” by The Beatless Sense Mongers

MegaEpix Enormous

A song about The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

• Rapidly-Riding-on-the-Rapids.mp3
• Rapidly-Riding-on-the-Rapids.mp4

[Verse 1]
Who knows
When you’re caught up in the throws
How it goes
Rapidly riding on the rapids
Wonder how quid pro quo did
Did the problem rid?
(Or was it hid)

[Bridge]
If things weren’t already frightening
Here comes the thunder and lightning

[Chorus]
Instability in the atmosphere
I fear it’s everywhere
The increased intensity is clear
Look there, there, and there

[Instrumental, Guitar Solo, Drum Fills]

[Verse 2]
Who knows
When you’re caught up in the gears
With dues in arrears
Rapidly riding on the rapids
Wonder how quid pro quo did
Did the problem rid?
(Or the bid hid)

[Bridge]
If things weren’t already frightening
Here comes the thunder and lightning

[Chorus]
Instability in the atmosphere
I fear it’s everywhere
The increased intensity is clear
Look there, there, and there

[Instrumental, Saxophone Solo, Drum Fills]

[Bridge]
A little more cash (stash)
For a lot more trash (fast)
Voters thrashed (trashed)
Truth trashed (thrashed)
Carbon bribe (cried)
Devil’s bride (died)

If things weren’t already frightening
Here comes the thunder and lightning

[Chorus]
Instability in the atmosphere
I fear it’s everywhere
The increased intensity is clear
Look there, there, and there

[Outro]
Aware? There, there, there!

A SCIENCE AND ECONOMICS NOTE
“Quid pro quo,” a Latin term meaning “something for something,” refers to a mutual exchange where one party provides something in return for something else from another party. In the context of governments’ climate policy, quid pro quo can manifest in several ways:

Policy and Legislation
Within a country, lawmakers might support climate-related legislation in exchange for concessions in other policy areas. This can involve political bargaining where support for green initiatives is traded for support on unrelated legislation or local projects.

Political Support and Lobbying
Governments might craft climate policies that favor certain industries or sectors in exchange for political support, campaign contributions, or other forms of influence. This can lead to policies that are beneficial to particular stakeholders but may not always align with the most effective or equitable climate strategies.

Such arrangements can lead to compromises that dilute the effectiveness of climate action or create inequalities in how the burdens and benefits of climate policies are distributed. Political quid pro quo usually lands us in rough waters, up the river, and without a paddle.

From the album “Right Now” by The Beatless Sense Mongers

MegaEpix Enormous

A song about The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

• DeSantis-Is.mp3
• DeSantis-Is.mp4

DeSantis Is….

[Verse 1]
DeSantis deprioritizes
Hopefully, everyone realizes
He’s a climate idiot
Facts to misrepresent

[Chorus]
Da, da, da, Florida (Da, da, da)
How could you be so dumb
To give up our freedom
Florida, run, run, run (run, run, run)

[Instrumental, Guitar Solo, Drum Fills]

[Verse 1]
DeSantis is
A numbskull
Intelligence
Dull

[Chorus]
Da, da, da, Florida (Da, da, da)
How could you be so dumb
To give up our freedom
Florida, run, run, run (run, run, run)

[Instrumental, Saxophone Solo, Bass]

[Bridge]
You fool
Go back to school
Oh, you tool
You rule the school
With misinformation
Total devastation

[Chorus]
Da, da, da, Florida (Da, da, da)
How could you be so dumb
To give up our freedom
Florida, run, run, run (run, run, run)

[Outro]
Da, da, da, Florida (Da, da, da)
How could you be so dumb
To give up our freedom

[End]

A SCIENCE NOTE
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed legislation on May 15 that will deprioritize climate change and largely remove it from state statutes. The new law also bans the installation of power-generating wind turbines offshore or near the state’s extensive coastline. Critics argue that this legislation ignores the serious climate change threats facing Florida, such as rising sea levels, extreme heat, flooding, and increasingly severe storms. The measure, which takes effect on July 1, also promotes the expansion of natural gas, reduces regulation on gas pipelines, and increases protections against bans on gas appliances like stoves, according to a news release from the governor’s office.

DeSantis, who suspended his presidential campaign in January and later endorsed his former rival Donald Trump, described the bill as a common-sense approach to energy policy.

From the album “Right Now” by The Beatless Sense Mongers

MegaEpix Enormous

A song about The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

• Increase-in-Decline.mp3
• Increase-in-Decline.mp4

[Verse 1]
Primate change
The social cost of carbon
Come on,
Estrange

[Chorus]
An increase in decline
Happening all the time
In fact, the impact
Wails a whack

[Instrumental, Guitar Solo, Drum Fills]

[Verse 2]
Primate change
Costs an arm and a leg
Feels strange
Literally, I beg

[Chorus]
An increase in decline
Happening all the time
In fact, the impact
Wails a whack

[Instrumental, Saxophone Solo, Piano]

[Bridge]
Macroeconomic impact
The poor poorly lack
Damn damages
Upset averages
Extreme events
Prevents

[Chorus]
An increase in decline
Happening all the time
In fact, the impact
Wails a whack

[Instrumental, Guitar Solo, Bass]

[Outro]
Macroeconomic impact
The poor poorly lack
Damn damages
Upset averages

[End]

A SCIENCE NOTE
The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature

This paper estimates that the macroeconomic damages from climate change are six times larger than previously thought. We exploit natural variability in global temperature and rely on time-series variation. A 1°C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world GDP. Global temperature shocks correlate much more strongly with extreme climatic events than the country-level temperature shocks commonly used in the panel literature, explaining why our estimate is substantially larger. We use our reduced-form evidence to estimate structural damage functions in a standard neoclassical growth model. Our results imply a Social Cost of Carbon of $1,056 per ton of carbon dioxide. A business-as-usual warming scenario leads to a present value welfare loss of 31%. Both are multiple orders of magnitude above previous estimates and imply that unilateral decarbonization policy is cost-effective for large countries such as the United States.

The economic damage caused by climate change is six times worse than previously estimated, with global warming set to reduce wealth at a rate comparable to the financial losses of a continuous, permanent war, according to recent research.

The study found that a 1°C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world gross domestic product (GDP), a far higher estimate than previous analyses. The world has already warmed by more than 1°C (1.8°F) since pre-industrial times, and many climate scientists predict a 3°C (5.4°F) rise will occur by the end of this century due to the ongoing burning of fossil fuels. This scenario, according to a new working paper that has yet to be peer-reviewed, will result in an enormous economic cost.

A 3°C temperature increase will cause “precipitous declines in output, capital, and consumption that exceed 50% by 2100,” the paper states. This economic loss is so severe that it is “comparable to the economic damage caused by fighting a war domestically and permanently,” it adds.

The Age of Loss and Damage

From the album “Right Now” by The Beatless Sense Mongers

MegaEpix Enormous

A song about The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

• Straight-Line.mp3
• Straight-Line.mp4

Make a straight-line
For the door
Can’t take much more
I ain’t lyin’

[Verse 1]
Make a straight-line
For the door
Can’t take much more
I ain’t lyin’

[Bridge]
The winds are going to blow me down
(Down, down, down)
Just look around

[Chorus]
Straight-line wind
Again and again
Atmospheric instability
Is getting the best of me

[Instrumental, Saxophone Solo, Bass]

[Verse 2]
Connected
To enhanced convective
Available potential energy
Is coming after me

[Bridge]
The winds are going to blow me down
(Down, down, down)
Just look around

[Chorus]
Straight-line wind
Again and again
Atmospheric instability
Is getting the best of me

[Instrumental, Guitar Solo, Drum Fills]

[Verse 3]
Frequency and intensity
Concerning me
Warn of thunderstorms
Setting new norms

[Bridge]
The winds are going to blow me down
(Down, down, down)
Just look around

[Chorus]
Straight-line wind
Again and again
Atmospheric instability
Is getting the best of me

[Outro]
Straight-line wind
Blowin’ me down again

[End]

A SCIENCE NOTE
May 18, 2024: “Deadly storm wallops Houston as ferocious winds leave a destructive path across the South.” The storm left death and destruction, and thousands without power. The forecast predicts an unprecedented spring heatwave, putting all those without power in a deadly situation. The greatest short term climate change risk to human health is deadly humid heat (wet-bulb temperature).

Weather Like the Deadly Houston Windstorm Is Being Fueled in Part by Climate Change

Scientists have detected an increase since the 1980s in what are known as straight-line winds, and climate change is playing a significant role. These winds, which are often associated with severe thunderstorms, can reach speeds exceeding 100 mph and cause damage similar to that of a tornado, but they move along a straight path.

Understanding Straight-Line Winds

Straight-line winds, also known as derechos when they cover a particularly large area, are powerful, sustained winds that originate from downdrafts in thunderstorms. Unlike the rotating winds of a tornado, straight-line winds blow in a single direction, hence their name. These winds can flatten trees, knock down power lines, and cause extensive damage to buildings and infrastructure.

The Role of Climate Change

Recent studies indicate that climate change is contributing to an increase in the frequency and intensity of these wind events. The following factors explain how climate change is influencing straight-line winds:

1. Increased Atmospheric Instability: As global temperatures rise, the atmosphere becomes more unstable. Warmer air holds more moisture, leading to more intense thunderstorms, which are a primary source of straight-line winds. The increased energy in the atmosphere enhances the formation of severe weather systems capable of producing strong downdrafts.
2. Enhanced Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE): CAPE is a measure of the energy available for convection, which is a key process in the formation of thunderstorms. Higher CAPE values are associated with more vigorous updrafts and downdrafts, resulting in stronger winds. Climate change is leading to higher CAPE values in many regions, contributing to more powerful straight-line winds.
3. Changing Wind Patterns: Climate change is altering global wind patterns, which can influence the development and movement of severe weather systems. These changes can result in more frequent and intense straight-line wind events, particularly in areas that are becoming more prone to severe thunderstorms.

The Impact of Straight-Line Winds

The deadly Houston windstorm is a stark reminder of the destructive power of straight-line winds. The storm left a trail of devastation, with thousands of residents losing power and homes being damaged or destroyed. The aftermath of such storms can be particularly dangerous during extreme weather events like heatwaves, which are also becoming more common due to climate change.

Conclusion

As the climate continues to change, the occurrence of extreme weather events like straight-line winds is expected to increase. This poses significant challenges for communities, infrastructure, and emergency response systems. Understanding the role of climate change in these events is crucial for developing strategies to mitigate their impact and enhance resilience against future storms. Scientists and policymakers must work together to address the root causes of climate change and implement measures to protect vulnerable populations from the growing threat of severe weather.

From the album “Right Now” by The Beatless Sense Mongers

MegaEpix Enormous

A song about The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment