Deviation

Deviation-0.mp3
Deviation-0.mp4
Deviation-I.mp3
Deviation-I.mp4
Deviation-intro.mp3

[Intro]
Is your (Deviation)
Standard
(Man slandered)
Civilization

[Verse 1]
You call this civilized
Hopin’ you’d realized
We create deviate
In all we relate

[Bridge]
Time we pull through
We (me and you)

[Chorus]
Is our (Deviation)
Standard
(Man slandered)
Civilization
(Deviation)

[Bridge]
Devolution
Sour (solution)

[Verse 2]
You call this civilized
More dazed than surprised
We let our deviate
At an exponential rate

[Bridge]
Time we pull through
We (me and you)

[Chorus]
Is our (Deviation)
Standard
(Man slandered)
Civilization
(Deviation)

[Outro]
Devolution
Our sour (solution)
Our are

ABOUT THE SCIENCE

A standard deviation is a statistical measure that quantifies the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values. In simple terms:

A low standard deviation means the values are close to the average (mean).
A high standard deviation means the values are spread out over a wider range.

It’s often used in economics and finance to measure risk, volatility, or abnormality in data like stock prices, inflation, or GDP growth.

Real-World Meaning of “Multiple Standard Deviations”

If a metric is “2 standard deviations above the mean,” it means it is significantly higher than usual — so much so that it happens only about 2.5% of the time in a normal distribution.

Current Examples (as of 2024-2025) of Economic/Financial Metrics Showing Multiple Standard Deviations

These examples reflect extreme, unusual, or risky conditions — either positive or negative.

1. Inflation Volatility (U.S.)

Core inflation variability has been 2–3 standard deviations higher than historical norms at times since 2021.
Caused by COVID shocks, war, supply chain issues, and erratic monetary policy.

2. Federal Deficit (as % of GDP)

In fiscal 2024, the U.S. deficit was close to 6%–7% of GDP, well above historical norms and more than 2 standard deviations from peacetime averages.

3. Home Prices vs. Median Income

Home price-to-income ratios in many U.S. cities (like San Francisco or Austin) are 2+ standard deviations above historic affordability measures.
Indicates housing bubbles or structural imbalance.

4. Stock Market Valuation (e.g., CAPE Ratio)

The Shiller CAPE ratio (cyclically adjusted PE) for the S&P 500 is well above long-term averages — often cited as 2–3 standard deviations above its historical mean.
Signals potential overvaluation or irrational exuberance.

5. Corporate Debt Levels

Non-financial corporate debt as a % of GDP has spiked in recent years — well above the mean, and possibly 2 SDs higher than pre-2008 norms.

6. Climate-related Economic Losses

Insured losses due to climate disasters (floods, fires, hurricanes) have become multiple standard deviations above the 1980s–2000s averages.
Insurance companies and reinsurers now treat some events as no longer “tail risk” but regular occurrences.