[Verse 1]
Can’t you see
Your responsibility
You’re clearly
Killing you and me
[Chorus]
After all,
It’s maritime law
If you pollute the root
Sea the see, stop the loot
[Instrumental, Guitar Solo, Drum Fills]
[Verse 2]
Time for you halt
What is your fault
Internationally,
The sea is free
[Chorus]
After all,
It’s maritime law
If you pollute the root
Sea the see, stop the loot
[Instrumental, Saxophone Solo, Bass]
[Bridge]
Unanimous opinion
Rules on nature’s dominion
International court
Ordered document
Anthropogenic
Sick, sick, sick
[Chorus]
After all,
It’s maritime law
If you pollute the root
Sea the see, stop the loot
[Outro]
Can’t you see
Your responsibility
You’re clearly
Killing me
A SCIENCE NOTE
On May 21, 2024, the top maritime court declared that states have a legal duty to cut greenhouse emissions, marking a significant moment for climate justice. The international tribunal for the law of the sea (ITLOS) stated that greenhouse gases are pollutants damaging the marine environment, and that states have a legal responsibility to control them. Wealthy nations, the court decided, must reduce their emissions more rapidly than developing countries.
This advisory opinion on climate change was issued by ITLOS, which is responsible for interpreting and upholding the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), an international treaty representing 169 countries. It is the first time an international court has issued such a document.
In its unanimous opinion, the tribunal stated that the oceans are warming and becoming more acidic due to carbon dioxide emissions from human activities. This results in harm to marine life and resources, hazards to human health, and hindrances to marine activities such as fishing. The tribunal concluded that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are a form of pollution, and that states that have signed the convention are legally required to prevent, reduce, and control it “by all means necessary.”
Regrettably, the USA is not a signatory to UNCLOS (UN law of sea).
New Economics
Anthropogenic climate change is an exponential component of an unordered system (chaos theory). Climate change is primarily driven by the escalation of thermal energy affecting biogeophysical and socio-economic systems. While biogeophysical factors can be studied using math, physics, and historical records, socio-economic systems pose greater challenges due to the unpredictable consequences of human behavior and inexplicable consumer choices, exacerbating tipping points and feedback loops.
The Age of Loss and Damage is a new way of thinking about economics by combining economics, climate science, statistics, and physics. Until now, economic models have been unfit to capture the full extent of climate damage. Traditionally, “integrated assessment models” (IAMs) were used to forecast “shock” events. IAMs use “quadratic function” to calculate GDP losses by squaring the temperature change, yet ignore other methods (such as the exponential function) that are better suited for rapid change. “Climate change is fundamentally different to other shocks because once it has hit, it doesn’t go away,” said Thierry Philipponnat, author of a report by Finance Watch, a Brussels-based public interest NGO on financial issues. “And if the fundamental assumption is flawed, all the rest makes little sense — if any.”
Unfortunately, even scientists are failing to see, let alone forecast, the rapid acceleration in climate change. Due to their complexity, the impacts of the Domino Effect are being underestimated. The Domino Effect is also known as “tipping cascades” in climate science. Cascading impacts in relation to tipping points include cascading impacts across biogeophysical and social systems. Until recently, scientist have been drastically underestimating the social-ecological systems. The University of Exeter reports, “There is a notable lack of topic clusters dedicated to how humans will be impacted by climate-related tipping cascades.” 2023 was a wake-up call to social-ecological scientists. The record breaking physical and economical impacts could be felt worldwide. The record warming year was seventeen times greater than any other record increase in history. Typically, record-breaking temperatures are measured in 100th degrees. There were also 200 consecutive days of record-breaking temperatures. Usually, there are one or two record breaking days in a row. The increase in intensity and frequency of record-breaking heat requires forecasting models to be recast.
As flow velocities go up due to climate change, force and damage scale as square of the velocities.
Reuters reported, “Critics say this (IAMs) choice is doomed to underplay the likely impact – particularly if the planet hits environmental tipping points in which damage is not only irreversible but happens at an ever-accelerating rate.” Thierry Philipponnat’s report, Finance in a Hot House World, concludes: “Climate risk is growing to disruptive levels throughout the financial system and the guardians of financial stability urgently need to adapt their tools to regain control.” The report calls for economic models that do not mislead, scenario analyses that prepare the market, and a new prudential tool to address the build-up of systemic climate risk.
Traditional economics is based upon the “costs and benefits” to society. Since there are no known long-term benefits of climate change to society, the Age of Loss and Damage economics focuses on the exponential costs of climate change to society.
Loss and damage litigation against oil companies and governments will change world economics.
— from The Age of Loss and Damage / Brouse (2023)