LYRICS
In the East, where rivers flow in the sky,
Violent rains, historic floods pass by.
Canada’s hurricanes break records, so they say,
While Florida, Carolina, and South’s bill to pay.
(Chorus)
Atmospheric rivers, they twist and they bend,
From West to East, they shape our end,
Gaze as they dance, a meteorological blend,
Change our world, from beginning to end.
(Verse 2)
Traditionally, they whispered on the West’s breeze,
But now, the East feels their force with ease.
Meteorologists puzzled, but now they see the light,
As ARs carve their path, day and night.
(Chorus)
(Bridge)
NOAA nods, recognizing the trend,
PNA patterns, a message they send.
ARs in the East, not just a myth,
Their frequency rising, a climatic shift.
(Verse 3)
A tale of intensification, ARs amplify,
Affecting the northeast, where the sea meets the sky.
From Washington to Maine, the risks do grow,
As coastal lows brew, and nor’easters blow.
(Chorus)
(Outro)
Climate change, an urgent call,
ARs gaining strength, the sea levels tall.
We’re witnessing changes, too fast to comprehend,
As atmospheric rivers reshape, our world’s bend.
Chords: G# G F# / B D F# / F# B D / B E B / B F# D# F# B; Part II Rock Shuffle / Shuffle Rock @ 126 Beats Per Minute
Instrumentation: Vocals (TC-Helicon VOICELIVE and MiniNova Vocorder), Ibanez Acoustic Guitar (AW54CE), IKeyboards (Korg PS60, Casio WK-3500, Yamaha PSR-740, MiniNova, MicroKorg)
ABOUT THE SCIENCE & SONG
ChatGBT co-authored the lyrics using this section of our research paper:
The Eastern US is already seeing violent rain events as far inland as Kentucky with historic flooding in both 2022 and 2023. Eastern Canada has experienced its worst hurricanes on record. Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina have suffered billions of dollars in storm damage. Homeowners insurance is becoming increasing difficult to obtain in Florida.
Traditionally, atmospheric rivers (AR) in the United States have been linked to the West Coast. However, there is now growing recognition of AR activity on the East Coast. “In reality, their frequency hasn’t necessarily increased. Meteorologists have been using the term for decades; it’s simply gained popularity in the media, much like the polar vortex,” explained Jeff Boyne, meteorologist and climatologist at the National Weather Service. Indeed, according to Jason Cordeira, associate professor of meteorology at Plymouth State University, “Atmospheric rivers are more common on the East Coast than on the West Coast, although they tend to be less impactful and produce lower rainfall amounts.”
In March 2024, NOAA and the National Weather Service finally recognized the heightened frequency of East Coast Atmospheric Rivers occurrences, attributing them primarily to the recent shifts in the Pacific/North America (PNA) teleconnection pattern. This shift is accompanied by a northward movement of the midlatitude jet stream. ARs in the Eastern US have received relatively little attention despite their frequent occurrence and significant impact on heavy precipitation and severe weather events. The authors conducted a comprehensive study on wintertime AR frequency over the Eastern US spanning four decades, utilizing multiple observations and a state-of-the-art high-resolution climate model (AM4) developed at GFDL. Their findings reveal a notable rise in AR frequency over the Eastern US during this timeframe. NOAA’s report reaffirmed these findings, emphasizing the confirmed linkages with the PNA pattern across diverse scenarios, highlighting the crucial role of the PNA pattern in influencing AR variability.
There is increasing research into the types and intensification of East Coast AR events. The US Fourth National Climate Assessment highlights a substantial increase in heavy precipitation events in the Northeast, particularly between 1958 and 2012, with ongoing projections indicating further rises in precipitation, notably during winter and spring and in northern areas of the region.
Many types of East Coast ARs are intensifying, likely as a result of climate change. A study titled “Identifying Eastern US Atmospheric River Types and Evaluating Historical Trends” notes, “The increased moisture transport could have significant implications across the northeast corridor from Washington D.C. to Coastal Maine, heightening the risk of extreme precipitation from landfalling ARs. The study reveals that most ARs in the region are induced by extratropical cyclones, with lee side low pressure systems and coastal lows along the Atlantic Coast (e.g., nor’easters) being responsible for generating the strongest ARs.”
Climate change is anticipated to bring complex and potentially substantial impacts to both the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and atmospheric rivers along the East Coast of the USA. The AMOC interacts with atmospheric circulation patterns, including the positioning of the jet stream. Changes in the AMOC can influence the behavior of the jet stream, which, in turn, affects the formation and path of atmospheric rivers. The jet stream plays a crucial role in steering weather systems and atmospheric rivers.
How Fast Are Atmospheric Rivers Gaining Frequency and Intensity?
While the rate of change in the intensity, duration, and likelihood of climate disasters varies depending on the type of extreme weather, insights from events like the Canada wildfires of 2023 offer valuable perspective. According to the World Weather Attribution Organization, “Climate change amplified the cumulative severity of Quebec’s 2023 fire season up to the end of July by approximately 50%, and seasons of this severity are now at least seven times more likely to occur.” Similar trends may be observed in other catastrophic events such as hurricanes, heatwaves, droughts, floods, tornadoes, sea level rise, and atmospheric rivers.
According to a NASA-led analysis, global average sea level rose by approximately 0.3 inches (0.76 centimeters) from 2022 to 2023. When our paper, “Climate Change: Rate of Acceleration,“ was authored in 2023, the swift acceleration of this trend was unforeseen. Initially projected to double over 100 years, the rate of sea level rise dramatically escalated, shortening the doubling period to just 10 years by 2020. Recent observations suggest a further compression of this doubling period to a mere 2 years, raising significant concerns. It is imperative to acknowledge and address this alarming trend, hoping it is not indicative of a new norm but rather an anomaly.
Some areas of the world are now warming so fast, it is becoming more difficult to measure the change from “normal” or average. Jeff Boyne of the NWS said, “There are climate normals that are updated every 10 to 15 years, because the planet is warming so fast. The ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) regions are warming so fast that those normals are being updated every 5 years.” “It’s so far outside anything we’ve seen, it’s almost mind-blowing,” says Walter Meier, who monitors sea-ice with the National Snow and Ice Data Center. “September was, in my professional opinion as a climate scientist, absolutely gobsmackingly bananas,” said Zeke Hausfather, at the Berkeley Earth climate data project.”
